Tellor volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,268 daily moves since 29 Aug 2020. On a typical day TRB moves 3.3% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 10.9%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −95%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2021 | −39.9% | $53.86 | +32.6% | −17.7% |
| 30 Aug 2022 | −36.3% | $22.29 | −28.6% | −28.3% |
| 17 Sep 2023 | −35.1% | $27.04 | +32.0% | +110.1% |
| 5 Sep 2020 | −32.2% | $30.78 | +44.4% | −43.8% |
| 11 May 2022 | −30.4% | $10.02 | −3.7% | +58.0% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −28.5% | $23.55 | +1.0% | +11.9% |
| 3 Sep 2020 | −27.5% | $43.05 | −14.0% | −56.3% |
| 31 Dec 2023 | −26.4% | $192.9 | −35.6% | −39.0% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −26.1% | $9.67 | +17.5% | +41.2% |
| 9 Nov 2023 | −25.3% | $105.0 | −15.7% | −9.5% |
After these 10 falls, TRB was higher a week later in 5 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 79 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2024 | +57.4% | $74.99 | +71.1% | +44.0% |
| 7 Sep 2023 | +51.7% | $25.14 | +30.1% | +94.8% |
| 27 May 2025 | +51.5% | $50.74 | −12.6% | −27.9% |
| 10 Nov 2024 | +50.2% | $84.76 | −20.4% | −19.6% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | +43.9% | $23.44 | −21.0% | −26.2% |
| 26 Apr 2021 | +43.6% | $88.82 | +11.0% | −19.6% |
| 30 Jul 2022 | +37.0% | $32.08 | −0.9% | +9.1% |
| 30 May 2022 | +37.0% | $13.82 | −20.6% | −18.4% |
| 26 May 2021 | +35.6% | $71.42 | −9.9% | −52.5% |
| 26 Sep 2023 | +32.8% | $46.07 | +0.6% | +148.9% |
After these 10 gains, TRB was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 91 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Tellor and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days TRB has moved loosely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.57, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, TRB moved about 1.16% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.67 | 1.39% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.57 | 1.16% |
| All shared history | 2,268 | 0.49 | 1.27% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,268 days both pairs traded. What TRB did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.