Cardano signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ADA candle since 17 Apr 2018 (3,134 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ADA price · last close$0.147814 Nov 2026 close: $0.1478 (7d −18.7%)
RSI (14)20.9under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.21×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.7%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−95%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 32 | 66% | +8.7% | −0.8% | 2.8% | 96 | Strong evidence · leans up | 5 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 38 | 63% | +4.6% | −0.8% | 17% | 72 | Strong evidence · leans up | 21 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 43 | 63% | +3.6% | −0.8% | 25% | 54 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 48 | 58% | +2.5% | −0.8% | 39% | 52 | Weak evidence | 25 May 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 66 | 35% | −3.5% | −0.8% | 43% | 51 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 73 | 40% | −2.8% | −0.8% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence | 1 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 45 | 38% | −2.1% | −0.8% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 11 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 55 | 55% | +1.7% | −0.8% | 53% | 25 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 77 | 52% | +0.3% | −0.8% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 34 | 59% | +1.7% | −0.8% | 64% | 22 | No better than chance | 13 Mar 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 62 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 23 May 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 37 | 46% | −2.2% | −0.8% | 86% | 21 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 38 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.8% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 27 | 52% | +1.2% | −0.8% | 77% | 18 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 24 | 54% | +1.8% | −0.8% | 71% | 17 | No better than chance | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 28 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.8% | 91% | 16 | No better than chance | 24 Jun 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 27 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.8% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance | 4 May 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 33% | −2.6% | −0.8% | 64% | Too few cases | 1 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 75% | +6.6% | −0.8% | 9.2% | Too few cases | 4 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% drop in 30 days | 25 | 68% | +7.3% | −0.8% | 11% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans up | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 77 | 56% | +1.8% | −0.8% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence | 30 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 56 | 54% | +0.6% | −0.8% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Jul 2025 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 58 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.8% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 132 | 42% | −2.0% | −0.8% | 71% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 30 | 60% | +2.7% | −0.8% | 53% | 47 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 14 | 64% | +2.7% | −0.8% | 70% | 39 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 17 | 53% | +0.7% | −0.8% | 89% | 37 | Weak evidence | 6 Dec 2024 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 46 | 57% | +1.9% | −0.8% | 53% | 26 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 47 | 53% | +1.4% | −0.8% | 62% | 25 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 116 | 51% | +0.4% | −0.8% | 69% | 23 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 187 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.8% | 68% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 113 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.8% | 77% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 66 | 47% | −1.3% | −0.8% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 203 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.8% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 142 | 46% | −1.0% | −0.8% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 30 | 53% | +0.5% | −0.8% | 87% | 18 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 40% | −1.4% | −0.8% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 10 | 50% | −1.1% | −0.8% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 5 Mar 2025 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.8% | 97% | 11 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 7 | 86% | +12.7% | −0.8% | 1.5% | Too few cases | 12 May 2022 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 25 | 36% | −3.0% | −0.8% | 76% | 42 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 18 | 56% | +2.7% | −0.8% | 64% | 41 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 117 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.8% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 98 | 49% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1818 | −18.7% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.1931 | −9.2% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.1904 | −5.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1904 | −5.0% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.2196 | −5.2% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.