Bitcoin signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily BTC candle since 17 Aug 2017 (3,377 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 5 signals did no better than picking days at random.
BTC price · last close$64,15014 Nov 2026 close: $64,150 (7d −15.4%)
RSI (14)19.7under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.84×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.4%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−49%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a red day | 20 | 60% | +5.1% | +0.5% | 21% | 58 | Some evidence · leans up | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 22 | 86% | +4.8% | +0.5% | 22% | 56 | Some evidence · leans up | 20 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 60 | 63% | +2.2% | +0.5% | 46% | 51 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 90 | 46% | −1.1% | +0.5% | 39% | 50 | Weak evidence | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 58 | 59% | +1.7% | +0.5% | 66% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 59 | 54% | +1.3% | +0.5% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 86 | 44% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 34 | 62% | +2.3% | +0.5% | 59% | 48 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 29 | 59% | +2.3% | +0.5% | 64% | 46 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 35 | 49% | −0.4% | +0.5% | 86% | 45 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 24 | 58% | +2.2% | +0.5% | 69% | 43 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 20 | 60% | +2.4% | +0.5% | 69% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 49 | 53% | +0.2% | +0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 57 | 54% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 40 | 53% | +0.4% | +0.5% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 10 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 21 | 57% | +2.5% | +0.5% | 66% | 17 | No better than chance | 3 Jun 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 19 | 53% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 100% | 10 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 22% | −3.6% | +0.5% | 12% | Too few cases | 8 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 9 | 33% | −0.5% | +0.5% | 69% | Too few cases | 16 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 36 | 61% | +3.4% | +0.5% | 29% | 53 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 37 | 65% | +2.7% | +0.5% | 46% | 51 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 84 | 58% | +2.1% | +0.5% | 37% | 50 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 22 | 68% | +2.9% | +0.5% | 55% | 44 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 13 | 77% | +3.3% | +0.5% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 15 | 60% | +1.9% | +0.5% | 83% | 37 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2024 |
| 5% drop in a day | 115 | 47% | −0.4% | +0.5% | 68% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 136 | 53% | +1.1% | +0.5% | 77% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 54 | 50% | +0.1% | +0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 82 | 55% | +0.9% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 67 | 52% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 3 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | +0.5% | 80% | 16 | No better than chance | 11 Mar 2024 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 21 | 52% | +0.7% | +0.5% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 4 | 50% | +13.7% | +0.5% | 1.0% | Too few cases | 13 Jun 2022 | |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 8 | 75% | +6.2% | +0.5% | 5.1% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 5 | 60% | +3.5% | +0.5% | 36% | Too few cases | 16 Jun 2022 | |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 9 | 67% | +2.3% | +0.5% | 45% | Too few cases | 7 Jun 2021 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 2 | 50% | +13.5% | +0.5% | 5.9% | Too few cases | 12 Mar 2020 | |
| 15% rise in a day | 5 | 100% | +6.7% | +0.5% | 9.4% | Too few cases | 8 Feb 2021 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 1 | 0% | −1.6% | +0.5% | – | Too few cases | 7 Dec 2017 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 4 | 0% | −3.4% | +0.5% | 31% | Too few cases | 14 Jan 2021 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $71,460 | open |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $74,851 | open |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $80,151 | −4.2% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $80,151 | −4.2% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $81,938 | −2.2% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.