Solana signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily SOL candle since 11 Aug 2020 (2,287 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
SOL price · last close$70.2814 Nov 2026 close: $70.28 (7d −21.7%)
RSI (14)14.7under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.90×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.3%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−76%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 28 | 75% | +10.2% | −0.3% | 4.6% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans up | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 25 | 64% | +7.9% | −0.3% | 21% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up | 27 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 71 | 55% | +2.2% | −0.3% | 59% | 50 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 52 | 44% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 9 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 52 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 22 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 34 | 62% | +2.7% | −0.3% | 68% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 33 | 61% | +1.9% | −0.3% | 79% | 46 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 17 | 76% | +4.6% | −0.3% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence | 25 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 33 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 97% | 42 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 18 | 56% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 98% | 35 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 40 | 55% | +3.7% | −0.3% | 48% | 27 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 40 | 57% | +1.0% | −0.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 30 | 53% | +1.0% | −0.3% | 90% | 17 | No better than chance | 3 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 34 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 100% | 17 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 24 | 42% | −2.6% | −0.3% | 82% | 16 | No better than chance | 11 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 20 | 55% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 11 | 55% | +1.3% | −0.3% | 93% | 8 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| Golden cross | 6 | 67% | +5.6% | −0.3% | 29% | Too few cases | 2 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 6 | 83% | +5.0% | −0.3% | 34% | Too few cases | 22 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% rise in 30 days | 23 | 74% | +14.2% | −0.3% | 3.1% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up | 25 Dec 2023 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 41 | 61% | +6.4% | −0.3% | 15% | 53 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 54 | 63% | +2.6% | −0.3% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence | 22 Jul 2025 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 117 | 54% | +1.6% | −0.3% | 58% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 31 | 65% | +4.1% | −0.3% | 51% | 49 | Weak evidence | 24 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 60 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.3% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 161 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.3% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 91 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 38 | 58% | +0.8% | −0.3% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 15 | 73% | +6.4% | −0.3% | 48% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 45 | 56% | +1.3% | −0.3% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance | 9 Jun 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 62 | 53% | +1.5% | −0.3% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 113 | 51% | +0.8% | −0.3% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 93 | 49% | −0.6% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 140 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 24 | 54% | +2.3% | −0.3% | 78% | 17 | No better than chance | 2 Mar 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 10 | 50% | −0.8% | −0.3% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 1 Dec 2022 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 13 | 62% | +3.9% | −0.3% | 73% | 14 | No better than chance | 24 Dec 2023 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 20 | 60% | +0.4% | −0.3% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 12 | 67% | +1.5% | −0.3% | 92% | 9 | No better than chance | 3 Mar 2025 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 8 | 88% | +9.1% | −0.3% | 7.1% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.3% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 38% | −5.5% | −0.3% | 65% | 41 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 47% | −2.4% | −0.3% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 55% | +0.1% | −0.3% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $86.74 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $89.33 | −8.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $95.64 | −6.6% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $101.4 | −8.4% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $101.0 | −8.9% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $103.7 | −7.7% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.