Polkadot signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily DOT candle since 18 Aug 2020 (2,280 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
DOT price · last close$0.707014 Nov 2026 close: $0.7070 (7d −21.3%)
RSI (14)19.1under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.31×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 47 | 43% | −6.6% | −1.0% | 11% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 35 | 66% | +3.6% | −1.0% | 37% | 52 | Weak evidence | 13 Jul 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 55 | 29% | −3.4% | −1.0% | 59% | 50 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 24 | 58% | +4.5% | −1.0% | 36% | 48 | Weak evidence | 7 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 65 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.0% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 19 | 58% | +3.5% | −1.0% | 58% | 44 | Weak evidence | 7 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 38 | 39% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 99% | 44 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 21 | 57% | +2.8% | −1.0% | 63% | 43 | Weak evidence | 7 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 24 | 67% | +1.4% | −1.0% | 77% | 42 | Weak evidence | 15 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 14 | 64% | +2.5% | −1.0% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence | 9 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 15 | 47% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 99% | 33 | No better than chance | 25 Jul 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 37 | 54% | +0.6% | −1.0% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 46 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Jul 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 27 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.0% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 16 | 56% | +2.3% | −1.0% | 73% | 15 | No better than chance | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 21 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.0% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 19 | 53% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance | 7 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 6 | 17% | −11.2% | −1.0% | 4.5% | Too few cases | 9 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 6 | 33% | −4.4% | −1.0% | 48% | Too few cases | 13 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% rise in 3 days | 94 | 39% | −4.2% | −1.0% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 56 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 31 | 58% | +1.7% | −1.0% | 68% | 46 | Weak evidence | 11 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 133 | 45% | −0.4% | −1.0% | 91% | 46 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 12 | 67% | +5.1% | −1.0% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence | 7 Dec 2024 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 18 | 67% | +2.7% | −1.0% | 67% | 42 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 12 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.0% | 95% | 33 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 33 | 58% | +4.1% | −1.0% | 32% | 27 | No better than chance | 8 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 19 | 42% | −7.6% | −1.0% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance | 8 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 84 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 45 | 42% | −1.8% | −1.0% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 39 | 46% | −2.1% | −1.0% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 134 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.0% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 20 | 40% | −6.3% | −1.0% | 43% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 88 | 42% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 100 | 43% | −1.2% | −1.0% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 30 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance | 8 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 8 | 63% | +0.3% | −1.0% | 75% | Too few cases | 10 Oct 2025 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 6 | 67% | +1.6% | −1.0% | 60% | Too few cases | 10 Oct 2025 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 2 | 50% | +4.3% | −1.0% | 50% | Too few cases | 12 May 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 4 | 100% | +7.8% | −1.0% | 14% | Too few cases | 24 Nov 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 53% | +2.0% | −1.0% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 39% | −2.3% | −1.0% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 64% | +0.6% | −1.0% | 93% | 34 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 38% | −2.8% | −1.0% | 90% | 10 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.8400 | open |
| 10 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.8440 | open |
| 10 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.8440 | open |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.9470 | −5.2% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.9090 | 0.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.9090 | 0.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $1.03 | −7.4% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $1.05 | −9.6% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.05 | −9.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.