Market breadth: 14 of 94 coins above their 200-day average
At the 14 Nov 2026 close, 14 of the 94 coins we track were above their 200-day average and 67 had an RSI under 30. Only 0.4% of days since Dec 2019 had a larger share of oversold coins.
What followed days like this one
At least 50% of coins oversold (RSI under 30). On the 46 such days (17 separate spells), the median coin was higher a week later 76% of the time, against 47% on any day; the median move was +3.7% against −0.6%. A gap that size appears by luck about 7.6% of the time, which is not rare enough to rule luck out.
| After | Days | Higher | Any day | Median move | Any day | By luck, alone | By luck, all tests | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median coin, 7 days | 46 | 76% | 47% | +3.7% | −0.6% | 7.6% | 49% | No better than chance |
| Median coin, 30 days | 46 | 54% | 42% | +0.7% | −3.4% | 48% | 94% | No better than chance |
| Bitcoin, 7 days | 46 | 74% | 53% | +3.1% | +0.4% | 8.7% | 49% | No better than chance |
| Bitcoin, 30 days | 46 | 63% | 56% | +4.7% | +2.0% | 52% | 94% | No better than chance |
Every spell of “at least 50% of coins oversold”
| First day | Days it lasted | Median coin +7d | Median coin +30d | Bitcoin +7d | Bitcoin +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2026 | 1 | open | open | open | open |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 2 | +2.1% | +2.7% | +4.1% | +4.2% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 4 | −9.7% | −14.3% | −12.0% | −12.6% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | 2 | −0.6% | −0.8% | −5.6% | −7.1% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | 2 | +9.0% | −11.0% | +0.1% | −10.7% |
| 4 Aug 2024 | 3 | −1.6% | −1.2% | +0.9% | −1.2% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2 | +3.3% | −5.6% | +0.5% | +6.4% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | 1 | +2.2% | 0.0% | −5.2% | −1.8% |
| 13 Apr 2024 | 1 | +14.1% | +0.9% | +1.6% | −1.5% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | 2 | +1.6% | +0.5% | −1.7% | −0.2% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | 6 | +2.0% | +12.6% | +2.6% | +17.7% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | 1 | +6.0% | +8.4% | +4.6% | +7.6% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | 2 | +2.4% | +1.4% | −8.5% | −10.0% |
| 9 May 2022 | 4 | −16.5% | −19.4% | −0.7% | +0.4% |
Returns are measured from the close of the first day of each spell. The 14 most recent of 17 spells. A spell is a run of days meeting the condition, with breaks of up to a week ignored. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
The wider regime: washed out
Fewer than 1 coin in 5 above its 200-day average. On the 1,141 such days (12 separate spells), the median coin was higher 30 days later 41% of the time, against 42% on any day; the median move was −3.0% against −3.4%. A gap that size appears by luck about 91% of the time, so it tells you nothing reliable.
Every market condition we test
The thresholds are round numbers fixed in advance, and every one is listed, including those that show nothing. Each row is the median coin over the following 7 and 30 days.
| Condition | Days | Spells | Higher after 7d | Median 7d | 7-day verdict | Higher after 30d | Median 30d | 30-day verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washed out · now | 1,141 | 12 | 46% | −0.6% | No better than chance | 41% | −3.0% | No better than chance |
| Weak | 247 | 30 | 46% | −0.7% | No better than chance | 42% | −8.3% | No better than chance |
| Mixed | 338 | 29 | 53% | +0.8% | No better than chance | 55% | +1.9% | No better than chance |
| Strong | 316 | 30 | 48% | −0.7% | No better than chance | 38% | −4.5% | No better than chance |
| Broad uptrend | 476 | 16 | 43% | −1.6% | No better than chance | 40% | −8.3% | No better than chance |
| At least 15% of coins oversold · now | 176 | 40 | 68% | +3.1% | A hint, not proof · leans up | 43% | −1.9% | No better than chance |
| At least 30% of coins oversold · now | 95 | 32 | 71% | +3.4% | A hint, not proof · leans up | 51% | 0.0% | No better than chance |
| At least 50% of coins oversold · now | 46 | 17 | 76% | +3.7% | No better than chance | 54% | +0.7% | No better than chance |
| At least 15% of coins overbought | 302 | 31 | 55% | +2.1% | A hint, not proof · leans up | 57% | +6.3% | A hint, not proof · leans up |
| At least 30% of coins overbought | 142 | 20 | 50% | 0.0% | No better than chance | 53% | +2.6% | No better than chance |
| At least 50% of coins overbought | 58 | 15 | 50% | +0.2% | No better than chance | 50% | −0.6% | No better than chance |
On any day since Dec 2019 the median coin was higher a week later 47% of the time (median −0.6%) and higher 30 days later 42% of the time (median −3.4%). Shaded rows hold at the latest close.
How this is tested
Market conditions come in long streaks, so counting single days would badly overstate the evidence: 300 days inside three long spells are closer to three observations than to 300. The luck figure here rotates the whole history of the condition against the history of what followed, 4,000 times, which keeps the streaks intact, and asks how often a gap at least as large turns up. The second luck figure corrects for all 44 tests on this page (Benjamini-Hochberg). “Evidence” needs that corrected figure at 5% or lower, the same direction in both halves of the history, and at least five separate spells.
- Survivors only. The 94 coins are the ones that trade on Binance today. Coins that were delisted are missing, which makes past breadth look a little better than it felt at the time.
- Short history. Readings start in Dec 2019, when 20 coins first had 200 days of data. That is a handful of market cycles.
- Median coin. The middle coin's move, each coin counting once. It is not a portfolio you can buy without trading all of them.