Tellor signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily TRB candle since 29 Aug 2020 (2,269 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 5 signals did no better than picking days at random.
TRB price · last close$12.8114 Nov 2026 close: $12.81 (7d −17.5%)
RSI (14)23.9under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.48×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.4%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme sell pressure | 65 | 42% | −3.8% | −0.4% | 54% | 51 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 56 | 61% | +3.4% | −0.4% | 50% | 51 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 28 | 36% | −7.4% | −0.4% | 32% | 50 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 26 | 31% | −7.8% | −0.4% | 29% | 50 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 35 | 40% | −4.0% | −0.4% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 44 | 39% | −1.7% | −0.4% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 30 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 79 | 44% | −1.5% | −0.4% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 25 | 40% | −5.8% | −0.4% | 54% | 46 | Weak evidence | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 29 | 41% | −2.4% | −0.4% | 87% | 43 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 26 | 58% | +2.0% | −0.4% | 85% | 42 | Weak evidence | 10 Jul 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 16 | 38% | −2.8% | −0.4% | 89% | 37 | Weak evidence | 27 May 2025 |
| Volatility squeeze | 16 | 56% | +2.1% | −0.4% | 87% | 37 | Weak evidence | 13 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 91 | 42% | −2.0% | −0.4% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance | 6 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 41 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 55 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 4 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 22 | 45% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 19 | 47% | −0.2% | −0.4% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Golden cross | 8 | 63% | +3.8% | −0.4% | 46% | Too few cases | 20 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 50% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 95% | Too few cases | 7 Jun 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% rise in 7 days | 21 | 38% | −12.1% | −0.4% | 7.9% | 85 | Strong evidence · leans down | 16 Apr 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 42 | 40% | −8.1% | −0.4% | 12% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 22 | 77% | +9.1% | −0.4% | 17% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 77 | 39% | −5.3% | −0.4% | 24% | 56 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 89 | 57% | +3.2% | −0.4% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence | 13 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 47 | 36% | −4.2% | −0.4% | 57% | 51 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 46 | 39% | −3.3% | −0.4% | 71% | 50 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 127 | 44% | −2.6% | −0.4% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence | 6 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 132 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.4% | 69% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 176 | 43% | −1.9% | −0.4% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 31 | 58% | +3.2% | −0.4% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 48 | 46% | −1.9% | −0.4% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 3 Jun 2025 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 67 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.4% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 175 | 53% | +1.1% | −0.4% | 69% | 22 | No better than chance | 6 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 72 | 49% | −1.0% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 121 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 39 | 44% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 19 Apr 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 30 | 53% | +2.5% | −0.4% | 77% | 20 | No better than chance | 16 Feb 2025 |
| 7% rise in a day | 135 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 6 Oct 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 24 | 46% | −2.9% | −0.4% | 83% | 16 | No better than chance | 29 May 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 15 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance | 13 Apr 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 60% | +3.8% | −0.4% | 31% | 52 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 37% | −3.4% | −0.4% | 62% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 55% | +4.9% | −0.4% | 73% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 38% | −1.6% | −0.4% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $15.48 | −4.6% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $16.74 | −10.6% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $17.37 | −3.6% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $18.05 | −12.6% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $18.31 | −4.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.