BNB signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily BNB candle since 6 Nov 2017 (3,296 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
BNB price · last close$581.914 Nov 2026 close: $581.9 (7d −16.4%)
RSI (14)20.6under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.71×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume44.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−58%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme buy pressure | 87 | 44% | −1.1% | +0.5% | 54% | 49 | Weak evidence | 27 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 51 | 49% | −0.7% | +0.5% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 37 | 62% | +1.7% | +0.5% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 27 | 78% | +3.5% | +0.5% | 48% | 47 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| Death cross | 12 | 83% | +6.2% | +0.5% | 35% | 46 | Weak evidence | 29 Dec 2025 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 51 | 45% | −3.1% | +0.5% | 17% | 46 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 29 | 41% | −1.6% | +0.5% | 67% | 45 | Weak evidence | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 23 | 65% | +1.3% | +0.5% | 91% | 39 | Weak evidence | 6 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 22 | 50% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 51 | 61% | +2.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 26 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 84 | 46% | −0.5% | +0.5% | 72% | 23 | No better than chance | 19 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 53 | 55% | +1.5% | +0.5% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance | 30 May 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 48 | 52% | +0.9% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 68 | 51% | +0.6% | +0.5% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 34 | 44% | −0.4% | +0.5% | 87% | 19 | No better than chance | 28 Jul 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 24 | 71% | +1.4% | +0.5% | 91% | 15 | No better than chance | 24 Feb 2026 |
| Golden cross | 12 | 42% | −1.0% | +0.5% | 88% | 10 | No better than chance | 3 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 18 | 61% | +0.4% | +0.5% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 15 | 53% | +0.4% | +0.5% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 3 days | 28 | 54% | +5.0% | +0.5% | 22% | 58 | Some evidence · leans up | 8 Mar 2024 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 13 | 85% | +7.7% | +0.5% | 22% | 52 | Weak evidence | 7 Jun 2021 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 42 | 62% | +2.8% | +0.5% | 48% | 52 | Weak evidence | 30 Mar 2024 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 82 | 66% | +2.3% | +0.5% | 43% | 50 | Weak evidence | 3 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 53 | 68% | +2.3% | +0.5% | 57% | 50 | Weak evidence | 6 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 32 | 72% | +3.7% | +0.5% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence | 26 Feb 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 85 | 58% | +1.3% | +0.5% | 75% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 38 | 63% | +1.3% | +0.5% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 106 | 53% | +0.4% | +0.5% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 22 | 59% | +5.9% | +0.5% | 20% | 35 | Weak evidence | 12 Mar 2024 |
| 5% drop in a day | 145 | 58% | +1.7% | +0.5% | 49% | 23 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 16 | 63% | +5.6% | +0.5% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance | 27 Apr 2021 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 51 | 53% | +1.3% | +0.5% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 3 Oct 2025 |
| 5% rise in a day | 158 | 53% | +0.6% | +0.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 3 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 103 | 56% | +1.0% | +0.5% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance | 30 May 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 20 | 50% | +3.1% | +0.5% | 64% | 17 | No better than chance | 13 Mar 2024 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 18 | 67% | +0.7% | +0.5% | 98% | 10 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 15 | 53% | +0.2% | +0.5% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2022 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 7 | 71% | +3.9% | +0.5% | 32% | Too few cases | 11 May 2022 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 6 | 83% | +23.6% | +0.5% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | 23 May 2021 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 7 | 43% | −5.1% | +0.5% | 13% | Too few cases | 11 Apr 2021 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 32 | 41% | −2.1% | +0.5% | 54% | 48 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 130 | 58% | +1.8% | +0.5% | 50% | 24 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 112 | 54% | +0.4% | +0.5% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 24 | 67% | +0.8% | +0.5% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $704.4 | −1.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | $698.5 | −1.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $698.5 | −1.3% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $744.9 | −6.3% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $739.6 | −4.8% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $732.1 | +1.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.