Litecoin signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily LTC candle since 13 Dec 2017 (3,259 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 11 signals did no better than picking days at random.
LTC price · last close$44.5114 Nov 2026 close: $44.51 (7d −14.7%)
RSI (14)25.1under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.85×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume49.6%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−89%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in a week | 37 | 70% | +4.4% | −0.2% | 22% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up | 6 Jun 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 53 | 55% | +1.0% | −0.2% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 43 | 42% | −1.4% | −0.2% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence | 4 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 32 | 63% | +2.1% | −0.2% | 63% | 47 | Weak evidence | 24 Jun 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 87 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence | 17 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 37 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.2% | 95% | 45 | Weak evidence | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 21 | 43% | −3.7% | −0.2% | 57% | 44 | Weak evidence | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 25 | 56% | +0.4% | −0.2% | 94% | 39 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Death cross | 10 | 70% | +6.2% | −0.2% | 42% | 30 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2025 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 77 | 44% | −1.0% | −0.2% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 11 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 55 | 44% | −0.6% | −0.2% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 38 | 47% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance | 25 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 65 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 64 | 47% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 38 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 32 | 44% | −1.1% | −0.2% | 92% | 18 | No better than chance | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 23 | 43% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 92% | 14 | No better than chance | 2 May 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 18 | 56% | +0.3% | −0.2% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| Golden cross | 11 | 45% | −0.5% | −0.2% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 67 | 58% | +2.6% | −0.2% | 33% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 107 | 54% | +1.4% | −0.2% | 51% | 49 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 55 | 53% | +1.1% | −0.2% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 32 | 44% | −3.2% | −0.2% | 52% | 48 | Weak evidence | 8 Dec 2024 |
| 7% drop in a day | 115 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.2% | 90% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 108 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.2% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 54 | 46% | −0.6% | −0.2% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 184 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 97% | 45 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 24 | 67% | +2.6% | −0.2% | 62% | 44 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2025 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 24 | 33% | −2.8% | −0.2% | 66% | 43 | Weak evidence | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 12 | 58% | +2.3% | −0.2% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 5% drop in a day | 175 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 51 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.2% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 117 | 48% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 33 | 42% | −1.4% | −0.2% | 86% | 19 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2025 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 17 | 53% | +2.7% | −0.2% | 70% | 16 | No better than chance | 3 Jun 2022 |
| 15% rise in a day | 22 | 45% | −0.5% | −0.2% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 8 | 75% | +11.9% | −0.2% | 0.5% | Too few cases | 13 Jun 2022 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 6 | 67% | +16.9% | −0.2% | 0.2% | Too few cases | 5 Jun 2021 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 3 | 33% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 84% | Too few cases | 18 Dec 2020 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 3 | 33% | −12.3% | −0.2% | 8.1% | Too few cases | 4 Dec 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 108 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.2% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 126 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.2% | 97% | 45 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 21 | 67% | +2.9% | −0.2% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 29 | 55% | +0.3% | −0.2% | 96% | 41 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $50.23 | open |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $56.75 | −2.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $61.58 | −3.8% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $58.84 | −3.0% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.