XRP signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily XRP candle since 4 May 2018 (3,117 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
XRP price · last close$0.914414 Nov 2026 close: $0.9144 (7d −21.4%)
RSI (14)16.1under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.03×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.2%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−75%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a red day | 26 | 58% | +5.2% | −0.8% | 8.9% | 85 | Strong evidence · leans up | 24 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 57 | 40% | −3.4% | −0.8% | 34% | 52 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 38 | 47% | −0.2% | −0.8% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 26 | 65% | +2.3% | −0.8% | 51% | 46 | Weak evidence | 4 Feb 2026 |
| Golden cross | 12 | 33% | −6.7% | −0.8% | 35% | 46 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 29 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.8% | 77% | 44 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 15 | 60% | +3.5% | −0.8% | 48% | 44 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 26 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.8% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence | 13 Apr 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 30 | 40% | −1.1% | −0.8% | 97% | 41 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 19 | 47% | −0.1% | −0.8% | 94% | 36 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 65 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.8% | 67% | 24 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 56 | 45% | −1.5% | −0.8% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance | 7 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 50 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.8% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 79 | 47% | −1.2% | −0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 52 | 44% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 6 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 33 | 39% | −2.1% | −0.8% | 81% | 20 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 33 | 48% | −0.1% | −0.8% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance | 20 Aug 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 21 | 52% | +1.2% | −0.8% | 77% | 16 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Death cross | 11 | 55% | +0.9% | −0.8% | 88% | 10 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 58 | 66% | +3.2% | −0.8% | 7.2% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans up | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 17 | 65% | +7.3% | −0.8% | 12% | 75 | Strong evidence · leans up | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 37 | 59% | +3.3% | −0.8% | 22% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up | 11 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 42 | 60% | +2.4% | −0.8% | 32% | 54 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 38 | 37% | −3.9% | −0.8% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence | 26 Jul 2025 |
| 7% rise in a day | 96 | 41% | −2.3% | −0.8% | 54% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 83 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.8% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 150 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.8% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 95 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.8% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 14 | 71% | +4.3% | −0.8% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 96 | 42% | −1.1% | −0.8% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 30 | 43% | −1.9% | −0.8% | 86% | 43 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 13 | 46% | −0.1% | −0.8% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance | 23 Aug 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 167 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 47 | 47% | −0.9% | −0.8% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 23 | 57% | +1.2% | −0.8% | 75% | 17 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 30 | 43% | −0.5% | −0.8% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 18 | 39% | −3.0% | −0.8% | 73% | 15 | No better than chance | 14 Dec 2024 |
| 15% drop in a day | 15 | 47% | −2.4% | −0.8% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 9 | 67% | +10.2% | −0.8% | 0.4% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 60% | +17.6% | −0.8% | 0.4% | Too few cases | 15 Jan 2021 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 25 | 36% | −2.3% | −0.8% | 81% | 42 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 97 | 44% | −1.0% | −0.8% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 116 | 44% | −0.8% | −0.8% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 18 | 44% | −1.0% | −0.8% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $1.10 | open |
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $1.11 | open |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.25 | −11.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $1.31 | −4.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.