Bitcoin Cash signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily BCH candle since 28 Nov 2019 (2,544 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 5 signals did no better than picking days at random.
BCH price · last close$201.414 Nov 2026 close: $201.4 (7d −19.3%)
RSI (14)22.5under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.01×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.3%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−88%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 26 | 27% | −6.1% | −0.2% | 18% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 46 | 39% | −3.4% | −0.2% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence | 2 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 59 | 54% | +2.1% | −0.2% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence | 15 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 47 | 43% | −2.5% | −0.2% | 56% | 51 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 36 | 36% | −2.2% | −0.2% | 69% | 48 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 45 | 56% | +0.6% | −0.2% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 12 Jan 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 29 | 41% | −3.1% | −0.2% | 58% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 77 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.2% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 12 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 34 | 50% | −1.1% | −0.2% | 91% | 44 | Weak evidence | 23 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 28 | 57% | +0.7% | −0.2% | 91% | 41 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 18 | 61% | +2.3% | −0.2% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 24 | 58% | +0.6% | −0.2% | 93% | 39 | Weak evidence | 9 Nov 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 13 | 54% | +0.8% | −0.2% | 94% | 34 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 43 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.2% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 10 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 29 | 55% | +1.6% | −0.2% | 78% | 19 | No better than chance | 5 Jul 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 30 | 43% | −1.6% | −0.2% | 83% | 18 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 20 | 55% | +1.5% | −0.2% | 82% | 14 | No better than chance | 10 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 56% | +2.4% | −0.2% | 44% | Too few cases | 1 Nov 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 38% | −2.2% | −0.2% | 57% | Too few cases | 27 Feb 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% rise in a day | 22 | 36% | −8.4% | −0.2% | 4.6% | 66 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 22 | 36% | −6.4% | −0.2% | 22% | 57 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 93 | 42% | −2.1% | −0.2% | 48% | 50 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 31 | 39% | −4.3% | −0.2% | 34% | 50 | Weak evidence | 8 May 2025 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 80 | 53% | +0.7% | −0.2% | 81% | 47 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 46 | 46% | −0.5% | −0.2% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 17 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.2% | 69% | 41 | Weak evidence | 24 Jun 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 87 | 47% | −2.5% | −0.2% | 36% | 26 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 10 | 60% | +3.4% | −0.2% | 72% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Mar 2024 |
| 5% rise in a day | 141 | 48% | −1.5% | −0.2% | 58% | 23 | No better than chance | 27 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 135 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.2% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 41 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.2% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 76 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 34 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.2% | 100% | 17 | No better than chance | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 32 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 10 Jun 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 19 | 53% | +1.5% | −0.2% | 84% | 14 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 14 | 64% | +1.6% | −0.2% | 86% | 11 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 7 | 57% | +2.6% | −0.2% | 48% | Too few cases | 5 Jun 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 20% | −2.4% | −0.2% | 62% | Too few cases | 12 Jun 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 9 | 22% | −10.8% | −0.2% | 0.9% | Too few cases | 22 Sep 2026 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 9 | 33% | −10.9% | −0.2% | 1.1% | Too few cases | 29 Mar 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 90 | 54% | +0.6% | −0.2% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 73 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.2% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 13 | 54% | +1.4% | −0.2% | 89% | 10 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 17 | 47% | −0.6% | −0.2% | 98% | 9 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $228.4 | open |
| 9 Nov 2026 | Five red days in a row | $238.7 | open |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Golden cross | $284.4 | −16.0% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.