Ethereum signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ETH candle since 17 Aug 2017 (3,377 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ETH price · last close$1,76914 Nov 2026 close: $1,769 (7d −21.0%)
RSI (14)19.2under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.57×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume44.9%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−64%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a green day | 25 | 64% | +6.3% | +0.3% | 18% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up | 19 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 82 | 38% | −1.7% | +0.3% | 45% | 50 | Weak evidence | 6 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 50 | 44% | −0.8% | +0.3% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 53 | 53% | +1.7% | +0.3% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 49 | 61% | +1.7% | +0.3% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 37 | 32% | −1.4% | +0.3% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 45 | 58% | +1.6% | +0.3% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 30 | 43% | −1.1% | +0.3% | 84% | 43 | Weak evidence | 13 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 89 | 53% | +2.0% | +0.3% | 55% | 24 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 77 | 48% | −0.9% | +0.3% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 64 | 47% | −0.6% | +0.3% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance | 19 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 83 | 48% | −0.2% | +0.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 36 | 50% | +1.3% | +0.3% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 24 | 63% | +3.2% | +0.3% | 61% | 19 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 27 | 48% | −0.6% | +0.3% | 92% | 16 | No better than chance | 10 Nov 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 25 | 56% | +1.0% | +0.3% | 94% | 14 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 22 | 50% | −0.4% | +0.3% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 78% | +6.0% | +0.3% | 13% | Too few cases | 31 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 9 | 78% | +4.0% | +0.3% | 29% | Too few cases | 30 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 7 days | 53 | 57% | +2.3% | +0.3% | 59% | 50 | Weak evidence | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 52 | 44% | −1.8% | +0.3% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence | 12 Aug 2025 |
| 7% drop in a day | 99 | 46% | −1.1% | +0.3% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 18 | 67% | +6.3% | +0.3% | 28% | 49 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 25 | 68% | +4.3% | +0.3% | 44% | 47 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 119 | 50% | +0.7% | +0.3% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 92 | 53% | +0.2% | +0.3% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 23 | 65% | +2.8% | +0.3% | 70% | 43 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 16 | 63% | +6.7% | +0.3% | 27% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 39 | 46% | −0.7% | +0.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 45 | 56% | +1.3% | +0.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 200 | 50% | −0.3% | +0.3% | 82% | 21 | No better than chance | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 161 | 51% | +0.2% | +0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 60 | 52% | +0.1% | +0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 127 | 50% | +0.3% | +0.3% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 21 | 48% | −0.2% | +0.3% | 97% | 12 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 16 | 44% | −0.7% | +0.3% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2022 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 8 | 63% | +6.7% | +0.3% | 9.0% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 7 | 71% | +10.4% | +0.3% | 2.7% | Too few cases | 18 Jun 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 5 | 60% | +6.8% | +0.3% | 18% | Too few cases | 5 Jan 2021 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 8 | 38% | −6.3% | +0.3% | 8.7% | Too few cases | 22 Jan 2021 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 115 | 44% | −1.0% | +0.3% | 61% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 24 | 38% | −0.8% | +0.3% | 90% | 40 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 136 | 53% | +1.0% | +0.3% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 34 | 47% | −0.3% | +0.3% | 94% | 19 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $2,053 | open |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $2,238 | −9.8% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $2,246 | −0.3% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $2,325 | −3.1% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $2,388 | −5.9% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.