Dogecoin signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily DOGE candle since 5 Jul 2019 (2,690 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
DOGE price · last close$0.0573714 Nov 2026 close: $0.05737 (7d −19.9%)
RSI (14)19.5under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.06×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume44.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−92%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 62 | 29% | −5.6% | −1.0% | 3.1% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 29 | 55% | +5.3% | −1.0% | 8.9% | 62 | Some evidence · leans up | 28 May 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 38 | 55% | +2.0% | −1.0% | 43% | 52 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 43 | 53% | +1.4% | −1.0% | 57% | 51 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 32 | 69% | +2.4% | −1.0% | 41% | 50 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 80 | 41% | −1.7% | −1.0% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 52 | 46% | −0.5% | −1.0% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 25 | 56% | +2.1% | −1.0% | 56% | 45 | Weak evidence | 13 Aug 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 26 | 42% | −2.6% | −1.0% | 79% | 42 | Weak evidence | 23 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 24 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.0% | 87% | 40 | Weak evidence | 21 Jul 2025 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 37 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.0% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 48 | 44% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 63 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 21 | 43% | −4.3% | −1.0% | 53% | 19 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 18 | 56% | +2.2% | −1.0% | 61% | 17 | No better than chance | 13 Sep 2025 |
| 20% drop in a week | 28 | 46% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 11 | 55% | 0.0% | −1.0% | 94% | 8 | No better than chance | 23 Jul 2026 |
| Golden cross | 8 | 38% | −3.4% | −1.0% | 47% | Too few cases | 5 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 50% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 93% | Too few cases | 28 Oct 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 68% | +8.2% | −1.0% | 5.5% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans up | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 35 | 37% | −5.3% | −1.0% | 21% | 61 | Some evidence · leans down | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 10 | 80% | +10.3% | −1.0% | 13% | 54 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2024 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 89 | 58% | +1.7% | −1.0% | 24% | 53 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 39 | 67% | +2.4% | −1.0% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 92 | 36% | −3.2% | −1.0% | 35% | 51 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 52 | 37% | −3.5% | −1.0% | 44% | 51 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 32 | 41% | −4.4% | −1.0% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence | 8 May 2025 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 58 | 57% | +0.2% | −1.0% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 104 | 41% | −2.0% | −1.0% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 149 | 42% | −1.8% | −1.0% | 72% | 47 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 27 | 44% | −3.3% | −1.0% | 69% | 44 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 60% | +8.6% | −1.0% | 22% | 36 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2022 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 37 | 41% | −3.6% | −1.0% | 54% | 25 | No better than chance | 20 Jul 2025 |
| 5% drop in a day | 143 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 97 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 35 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance | 11 Feb 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 22 | 55% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 91% | 14 | No better than chance | 7 Dec 2024 |
| 15% drop in a day | 15 | 47% | −1.4% | −1.0% | 98% | 9 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 13 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.0% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 0 | – | – | −1.0% | – | Too few cases | – |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 78 | 41% | −2.0% | −1.0% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 14 | 64% | +6.1% | −1.0% | 26% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 94 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.0% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 18 | 33% | −2.0% | −1.0% | 92% | 12 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.06651 | open |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.07423 | −5.6% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Death cross | $0.07977 | −3.4% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.07977 | −3.4% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.08095 | −2.9% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.08115 | −2.9% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.