Tellor seasonality: every month and weekday
Going by median return since 2020, Tellor's best month has been August (+5.7%, higher in 3 of 6 years) and its worst January (−21.6%, higher in 2 of 6). Across all 74 full months, it finished higher 38% of the time.
A handful of years per month is a small sample. The “by luck” column says how easily a record like that would turn up if the month were no different from any other.
By month
| Month | Years | Higher | Median | Average | Best | Worst | By luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6 | 2 of 6 | −21.6% | −4.3% | +69% (2021) | −40% (2024) | 100% |
| February | 6 | 3 of 6 | +0.1% | −3.0% | +13% (2023) | −26% (2025) | 68% |
| March | 6 | 3 of 6 | −3.5% | +20.6% | +151% (2021) | −26% (2025) | 68% |
| April | 6 | 3 of 6 | −1.7% | −9.4% | +27% (2026) | −48% (2024) | 68% |
| May | 6 | 2 of 6 | −13.7% | +14.5% | +120% (2024) | −25% (2021) | 100% |
| June | 6 | 0 of 6 | −11.0% | −15.2% | −4% (2023) | −36% (2021) | 9.0% |
| July | 6 | 4 of 6 | +1.2% | +23.7% | +148% (2022) | −18% (2024) | 21% |
| August | 6 | 3 of 6 | +5.7% | +2.0% | +26% (2021) | −28% (2022) | 68% |
| September | 7 | 3 of 7 | −5.4% | +26.7% | +256% (2023) | −67% (2020) | 100% |
| October | 7 | 2 of 7 | −7.7% | +12.2% | +113% (2023) | −22% (2026) | 72% |
| November | 6 | 2 of 6 | −9.6% | −0.9% | +34% (2024) | −30% (2023) | 100% |
| December | 6 | 1 of 6 | −17.4% | +6.1% | +146% (2023) | −37% (2021) | 42% |
By weekday
| Day (UTC) | Days | Higher | Median daily move | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 324 | 49% | −0.04% | −0.23% |
| Tuesday | 324 | 48% | −0.25% | −0.13% |
| Wednesday | 324 | 50% | +0.03% | +0.41% |
| Thursday | 324 | 48% | −0.28% | −0.11% |
| Friday | 324 | 58% | +0.74% | +1.19% |
| Saturday | 324 | 52% | +0.23% | +0.41% |
| Sunday | 324 | 43% | −0.51% | −0.10% |
A month's return runs from the open of its first daily candle to the close of its last (UTC). Only full months are counted. Daily moves are close to close.