TRON signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily TRX candle since 11 Jun 2018 (3,079 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
TRX price · last close$0.306914 Nov 2026 close: $0.3069 (7d −4.1%)
RSI (14)34.6between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.99×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume44.5%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−32%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 46 | 46% | −2.7% | +0.7% | 7.6% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans down | 3 Dec 2024 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 44 | 43% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 38% | 53 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 79 | 39% | −0.8% | +0.7% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 59 | 49% | 0.0% | +0.7% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 26 | 54% | +3.0% | +0.7% | 46% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Dec 2024 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 14 | 36% | −3.5% | +0.7% | 33% | 47 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 23 | 57% | +2.7% | +0.7% | 59% | 44 | Weak evidence | 12 Jun 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 35 | 63% | +0.9% | +0.7% | 96% | 44 | Weak evidence | 27 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 26 | 58% | +2.0% | +0.7% | 74% | 43 | Weak evidence | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 18 | 61% | +2.3% | +0.7% | 71% | 40 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 37 | 54% | +1.8% | +0.7% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance | 4 Dec 2024 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 31 | 42% | −0.8% | +0.7% | 68% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 64 | 59% | +1.0% | +0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 77 | 60% | +0.9% | +0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 50 | 52% | +0.9% | +0.7% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 48 | 52% | +0.8% | +0.7% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 20 | 60% | +1.7% | +0.7% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 33% | −2.4% | +0.7% | 18% | Too few cases | 7 Apr 2026 | |
| Death cross | 9 | 56% | +1.7% | +0.7% | 64% | Too few cases | 1 Nov 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 3 days | 23 | 30% | −6.1% | +0.7% | 2.8% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down | 3 Dec 2024 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 17 | 35% | −10.0% | +0.7% | 1.9% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down | 3 Dec 2024 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 13 | 77% | +8.7% | +0.7% | 6.2% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up | 6 Dec 2024 |
| 15% drop in a day | 14 | 71% | +8.1% | +0.7% | 5.1% | 62 | Some evidence · leans up | 4 Dec 2024 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 13 | 62% | +6.6% | +0.7% | 18% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up | 13 Jun 2021 |
| 15% rise in a day | 19 | 37% | −3.3% | +0.7% | 26% | 50 | Weak evidence | 3 Dec 2024 |
| 5% drop in a day | 119 | 58% | +1.7% | +0.7% | 51% | 49 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 34 | 44% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 50% | 49 | Weak evidence | 19 Dec 2024 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 34 | 50% | 0.0% | +0.7% | 88% | 44 | Weak evidence | 3 Dec 2024 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 26 | 50% | +0.1% | +0.7% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence | 10 Dec 2024 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 40 | 55% | +2.8% | +0.7% | 37% | 28 | No better than chance | 13 Jan 2025 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 69 | 57% | +1.2% | +0.7% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 81 | 51% | +0.1% | +0.7% | 83% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Mar 2025 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 74 | 51% | +0.1% | +0.7% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance | 17 Jan 2025 |
| 7% drop in a day | 73 | 55% | +0.9% | +0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 116 | 53% | +0.6% | +0.7% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 31 | 55% | +0.7% | +0.7% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 2 Jan 2025 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 8 | 88% | +8.4% | +0.7% | 0.9% | Too few cases | 10 Dec 2024 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 3 | 67% | +7.0% | +0.7% | 16% | Too few cases | 5 Jun 2021 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 5 | 60% | +1.5% | +0.7% | 76% | Too few cases | 3 Dec 2024 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 6 | 17% | −15.2% | +0.7% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | 3 Dec 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 94 | 45% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 17% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 17 | 47% | −3.9% | +0.7% | 22% | 29 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 114 | 55% | +0.7% | +0.7% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 25 | 56% | +2.5% | +0.7% | 61% | 20 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.3195 | −0.5% |
| 1 Nov 2026 | Death cross | $0.3132 | +2.0% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.3038 | +5.4% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | $0.3272 | −2.7% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.3272 | −2.7% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Breakout to a 90-day high | $0.3524 | −9.6% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI rises above 70 | $0.3524 | −9.6% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.3524 | −9.6% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Volatility squeeze | $0.3315 | −3.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.3309 | −0.3% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.3337 | −1.3% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.