After a 50% rise in 7 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 820 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence4 of 392 lean up · 2 lean down
No better than chance24 of 39coins
Scored cases820since 2017
The rule. Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Axie Infinity | 14 | 79% | +18.1% | −1.2% | +19.3% | 1.9% | 87 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Avalanche | 11 | 64% | +20.4% | −0.7% | +21.1% | 3.8% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Tellor | 21 | 38% | −12.1% | −0.4% | −11.7% | 7.9% | 85 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Gitcoin | 10 | 30% | −22.2% | −1.2% | −21.1% | 4.0% | 70 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Dogecoin | 10 | 80% | +10.3% | −1.0% | +11.2% | 13% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 19 | 63% | +8.3% | −0.3% | +8.6% | 29% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 12 | 33% | −9.3% | −0.5% | −8.9% | 24% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 11 | 55% | +10.5% | −0.6% | +11.1% | 27% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 14 | 64% | +5.7% | −0.1% | +5.8% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 11 | 73% | +4.6% | −0.6% | +5.2% | 62% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 13 | 54% | +4.9% | +0.1% | +4.8% | 68% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 14 | 50% | +1.9% | −1.2% | +3.0% | 77% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 12 | 33% | −5.4% | −1.4% | −4.0% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 22 | 45% | −1.9% | −1.2% | −0.6% | 97% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 12 | 42% | −2.9% | −0.7% | −2.3% | 88% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 13 | 46% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 96% | 33 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 11 | 27% | −3.9% | −2.7% | −1.2% | 96% | 32 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 10 | 70% | +5.6% | +0.1% | +5.5% | 65% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 10 | 50% | +3.3% | −1.3% | +4.6% | 63% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 10 | 60% | +4.4% | −0.7% | +5.1% | 72% | 24 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 10 | 50% | +1.7% | −0.8% | +2.6% | 82% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 10 | 50% | −1.1% | −0.8% | −0.3% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 10 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 10 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.7% | 97% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 13 | 62% | +3.9% | −0.3% | +4.2% | 73% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 11 | 45% | −5.3% | −1.2% | −4.1% | 77% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 14 | 57% | +2.8% | −0.5% | +3.3% | 79% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 11 | 45% | −3.8% | −1.0% | −2.8% | 77% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 18 | 50% | +0.7% | −0.6% | +1.3% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 14 | 50% | +1.2% | −1.3% | +2.5% | 89% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 11 | 55% | +0.6% | −1.1% | +1.7% | 90% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 17 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 12 | 58% | +1.0% | −0.4% | +1.4% | 93% | 9 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 16 | 44% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.3% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 12 | 33% | −1.1% | −0.3% | −0.8% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 13 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.6% | −0.1% | 100% | 7 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 12 | 50% | −2.1% | −1.3% | −0.9% | 97% | 7 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 11 | 36% | −0.8% | −1.4% | +0.6% | 98% | 6 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 11 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 1 | 0% | −1.6% | +0.5% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum | 5 | 60% | +6.8% | +0.3% | +6.5% | 18% | Too few cases | |
 BNB | 7 | 43% | −5.1% | +0.5% | −5.6% | 13% | Too few cases | |
 TRON | 5 | 60% | +1.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% | 76% | Too few cases | |
 Polkadot | 4 | 100% | +7.8% | −1.0% | +8.8% | 14% | Too few cases | |
 Litecoin | 3 | 33% | −1.2% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 84% | Too few cases | |
 Bitcoin Cash | 9 | 22% | −10.8% | −0.2% | −10.6% | 0.9% | Too few cases | |
 Cosmos | 9 | 56% | +1.7% | −0.9% | +2.6% | 56% | Too few cases | |
 Filecoin | 7 | 29% | −9.9% | −1.1% | −8.9% | 7.3% | Too few cases | |
 Aptos | 5 | 40% | −4.2% | −1.5% | −2.7% | 66% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 3 | 33% | −0.9% | −1.7% | +0.9% | 90% | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 7 | 57% | +1.6% | −1.4% | +3.0% | 58% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 4 | 50% | −1.9% | −1.5% | −0.4% | 95% | Too few cases | |
 Aave | 9 | 44% | −3.7% | −0.1% | −3.7% | 48% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 6 | 67% | +6.2% | −1.3% | +7.5% | 6.5% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 3 | 67% | +0.6% | −2.7% | +3.3% | 71% | Too few cases | |
 DODO | 5 | 0% | −14.7% | −0.8% | −13.9% | 5.2% | Too few cases | |
 Internet Computer | 7 | 14% | −5.9% | −1.3% | −4.5% | 36% | Too few cases | |
 Shiba Inu | 8 | 38% | −5.8% | −1.5% | −4.3% | 23% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 7 | 71% | +0.8% | −2.2% | +3.1% | 55% | Too few cases | |
 Raydium | 9 | 33% | −12.4% | −0.9% | −11.5% | 3.4% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 5 | 80% | +7.6% | −0.3% | +7.8% | 27% | Too few cases | |
 JUST | 6 | 17% | −18.0% | +0.6% | −18.6% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Algorand | 8 | 75% | +5.9% | −1.0% | +6.9% | 15% | Too few cases | |
 Lido DAO | 6 | 100% | +25.4% | −1.2% | +26.6% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 3 | 67% | +6.2% | −0.5% | +6.7% | 43% | Too few cases | |
 Conflux | 8 | 38% | −7.9% | −1.6% | −6.3% | 21% | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 3 | 0% | −22.2% | −1.7% | −20.5% | 1.6% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 4 | 0% | −17.9% | −1.9% | −16.0% | 3.6% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 6 | 50% | +1.5% | −1.6% | +3.1% | 43% | Too few cases | |
 Gala | 9 | 67% | +10.6% | −3.0% | +13.6% | 0.9% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 3 | 33% | −6.2% | −2.0% | −4.2% | 57% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 8 | 13% | −13.5% | −2.2% | −11.3% | 0.2% | Too few cases | |
 Basic Attention Token | 6 | 50% | −6.1% | −0.1% | −5.9% | 23% | Too few cases | |
 Audius | 9 | 56% | +7.8% | −1.2% | +9.0% | 4.2% | Too few cases | |
 dYdX | 6 | 17% | −14.3% | −1.7% | −12.6% | 3.4% | Too few cases | |
 The Graph | 9 | 56% | +1.9% | −1.8% | +3.7% | 42% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 5 | 60% | +23.7% | −2.5% | +26.3% | 0.5% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 0 | – | – | −0.3% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Prom | 6 | 67% | +3.9% | −0.2% | +4.1% | 30% | Too few cases | |
| Convex Finance | 7 | 57% | +18.8% | −1.7% | +20.5% | 0.2% | Too few cases | |
 Phala Network | 8 | 50% | −3.7% | −1.5% | −2.2% | 61% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 8 | 50% | +9.3% | −1.9% | +11.2% | 3.3% | Too few cases | |
 Lisk | 9 | 33% | −18.2% | −0.6% | −17.6% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Name Service | 4 | 50% | +3.9% | −1.1% | +5.0% | 41% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 3 | 33% | −19.0% | −0.9% | −18.1% | 1.4% | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 3 | 67% | +6.3% | −1.7% | +8.0% | 34% | Too few cases | |
 Neo | 9 | 22% | −9.9% | −0.6% | −9.3% | 4.4% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 5 | 20% | −20.7% | −3.4% | −17.3% | 1.8% | Too few cases | |
 AVA (Travala) | 6 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.4% | +0.6% | 90% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 4 | 0% | −23.0% | −0.5% | −22.5% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 1inch | 3 | 100% | +7.0% | −1.3% | +8.3% | 24% | Too few cases | |
 Livepeer | 8 | 38% | −6.3% | −1.7% | −4.6% | 33% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 5 | 40% | −14.9% | −1.6% | −13.3% | 2.7% | Too few cases | |
 Sun | 9 | 44% | −10.7% | −0.4% | −10.3% | 0.4% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.