What happens to Audius after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2020, Audius has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 10 times. In the 9 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 56% of the time, with a median move of +7.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AUDIO is −1.2%.

Too few cases

With 9 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 202010last on 24 Jan 2023

Higher after 7 days56%ordinary: 44%

Median 7-day move+7.8%ordinary: −1.2%

Could be luck4.2%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−42% / +45%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary AUDIO drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 10 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	9	44%	−0.9%	−6.8% to +19.1%	0.0%	−0.9%	54%
3 days	9	67%	+6.8%	−10.8% to +20.5%	−0.6%	+7.4%	1.7%
7 days	9	56%	+7.8%	−8.2% to +12.9%	−1.2%	+9.0%	4.2%
14 days	9	67%	+2.4%	−4.2% to +19.6%	−3.3%	+5.7%	34%
30 days	9	56%	+21.6%	−17.4% to +85.8%	−7.8%	+29.4%	1.0%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of AUDIO over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 4.2%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−14.3%ordinary AUDIO: −8.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.7%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way67%ordinary: 41%

Typical best point+32.4%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+7.5%ordinary: −1.5%

Ahead after costs56%ordinary: 43%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
24 Jan 2023	$0.2850	−0.9%	−3.2%	+28.2%
4 Apr 2022	$1.74	−13.2%	−41.7%	−47.6%
19 Mar 2022	$1.13	−6.8%	−8.2%	+21.6%
16 Aug 2021	$2.73	+5.1%	+12.9%	−17.4%
25 Mar 2021	$2.40	+24.9%	+30.3%	−19.3%
14 Mar 2021	$1.41	+25.5%	+10.6%	+85.8%
6 Mar 2021	$1.01	−13.1%	+44.8%	+171.7%
9 Feb 2021	$0.3213	+19.1%	+7.8%	+235.5%
8 Dec 2020	$0.1929	−4.1%	−10.2%	−7.8%
10 Nov 2020	$0.1395	open	open	open

The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Audius signals

50% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 33 cases 15% rise in a dayStrong evidence · 32 cases 30% rise in 7 daysStrong evidence · 33 cases 10% jump in a dayStrong evidence · 58 cases 7% rise in a dayStrong evidence · 100 cases 5% rise in a daySome evidence · 139 cases

Full Audius record

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