What happens to Theta Network after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2019, Theta Network has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 55% of the time, with a median move of +10.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for THETA is −0.6%.

Weak evidence45

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 27% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201911last on 13 May 2025

Higher after 7 days55%ordinary: 48%

Median 7-day move+10.5%ordinary: −0.6%

Could be luck27%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−13% / +49%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary THETA drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	11	27%	−5.9%	−7.2% to +0.3%	0.0%	−5.9%	1.5%	86
3 days	11	55%	+0.2%	−8.6% to +8.7%	0.0%	+0.2%	98%	6
7 days	11	55%	+10.5%	−0.6% to +26.6%	−0.6%	+11.1%	27%	45
14 days	11	45%	−1.0%	−7.3% to +21.2%	−1.6%	+0.6%	98%	6
30 days	11	55%	+1.3%	−21.5% to +41.4%	−3.7%	+5.0%	93%	9

“Ordinary median” is the median move of THETA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 1.9%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−14.6%ordinary THETA: −8.5%

1 case in 4 dipped past−19.3%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way64%ordinary: 43%

Typical best point+18.5%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+10.2%ordinary: −0.9%

Ahead after costs55%ordinary: 47%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was +8.6%, and in the later 5 it was +11.1%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
13 May 2025	$1.05	−5.9%	−13.4%	−29.7%
30 Nov 2024	$3.07	−6.0%	−0.4%	−24.0%
11 Nov 2024	$1.55	−7.0%	+10.5%	+66.3%
7 Mar 2024	$2.95	+3.3%	+13.7%	−10.3%
27 Feb 2024	$1.86	+4.6%	+49.0%	+58.4%
27 Jul 2021	$5.97	−2.7%	−0.9%	+9.3%
23 Mar 2021	$12.90	−13.0%	−0.1%	−23.2%
8 Mar 2021	$4.93	+8.8%	+37.0%	+149.3%
3 Jan 2021	$2.13	−7.4%	−6.6%	+1.3%
26 Dec 2020	$1.67	−19.1%	+43.8%	+24.4%
20 May 2020	$0.2790	−5.4%	+16.2%	−19.7%

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Theta Network signals

Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 20 cases 40% drop in 30 daysStrong evidence · 28 cases Volume spike on a red dayStrong evidence · 22 cases Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in controlWeak evidence · 50 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 67 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 49 cases

Full Theta Network record

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