What happens to DeXe after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2021, DeXe has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 13 times. In the 12 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 33% of the time, with a median move of −1.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DEXE is −0.3%.

No better than chance8

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 96% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 202113last on 10 Jul 2026

Higher after 7 days33%ordinary: 49%

Median 7-day move−1.1%ordinary: −0.3%

Could be luck96%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−25% / +29%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary DEXE drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 13 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	12	42%	−7.0%	−8.0% to +3.2%	0.0%	−6.9%	0.3%	86
3 days	12	33%	−3.0%	−9.2% to +6.1%	+0.1%	−3.0%	48%	42
7 days	12	33%	−1.1%	−18.3% to +3.4%	−0.3%	−0.8%	96%	8
14 days	12	58%	+2.8%	−11.9% to +18.6%	−1.1%	+3.9%	82%	12
30 days	12	58%	+9.7%	−40.7% to +44.8%	−3.1%	+12.8%	57%	20

“Ordinary median” is the median move of DEXE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 79%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−13.1%ordinary DEXE: −6.9%

1 case in 4 dipped past−21.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way75%ordinary: 35%

Typical best point+15.9%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−1.4%ordinary: −0.6%

Ahead after costs33%ordinary: 47%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was −7.8%, and in the later 5 it was +0.2%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
10 Jul 2026	$34.98	+9.2%	+4.2%	−93.8%
24 Jun 2026	$22.36	+2.4%	+3.1%	−82.5%
15 Apr 2026	$12.04	−8.1%	−0.3%	+10.6%
25 Feb 2026	$3.59	−7.7%	−0.1%	+107.5%
21 Sep 2025	$11.38	−8.0%	−18.0%	−42.1%
3 Jan 2025	$18.61	−7.6%	−19.5%	+8.9%
23 Dec 2024	$13.01	+13.1%	+10.0%	+50.5%
7 Mar 2024	$10.40	−6.3%	−1.9%	+42.9%
28 Feb 2024	$5.74	+5.7%	+28.8%	+157.5%
8 Dec 2023	$5.25	−8.0%	−25.4%	−28.5%
9 Nov 2023	$3.68	+2.3%	−8.1%	+31.5%
25 Jul 2022	$5.02	−22.0%	−22.7%	−40.2%

The 12 most recent. All 13 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other DeXe signals

20% drop in a weekStrong evidence · 29 cases 50% rise in 30 daysWeak evidence · 37 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 54 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 39 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 56 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 42 cases

Full DeXe record

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