What happens to Gitcoin after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2021, Gitcoin has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 11 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 30% of the time, with a median move of −22.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for GTC is −1.2%.

Strong evidence · leans down70

Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 4.0% of the time, though there are too few cases to split the history and check it twice. The lean is downward.

Cases since 202111last on 22 Oct 2026

Higher after 7 days30%ordinary: 46%

Median 7-day move−22.2%ordinary: −1.2%

Could be luck4.0%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−46% / +47%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary GTC drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 10 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	10%	−11.7%	−14.1% to −4.8%	0.0%	−11.6%	0.3%	70
3 days	10	30%	−14.5%	−21.7% to +11.8%	−0.3%	−14.1%	1.3%	70
7 days	10	30%	−22.2%	−36.0% to −1.0%	−1.2%	−21.1%	4.0%	70
14 days	10	20%	−24.7%	−41.3% to −14.4%	−2.9%	−21.9%	12%	56
30 days	9	11%	−37.6%	−39.5% to −18.9%	−6.8%	−30.8%	0.6%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of GTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: under 0.1%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−27.0%ordinary GTC: −9.4%

1 case in 4 dipped past−42.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way100%ordinary: 48%

Typical best point+20.4%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−22.5%ordinary: −1.5%

Ahead after costs30%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
22 Oct 2026	$0.3199	−12.3%	−30.3%	open
10 Oct 2026	$0.1855	−2.3%	+27.4%	−9.6%
1 Oct 2026	$0.1445	−7.2%	+46.5%	+56.7%
11 May 2026	$0.1780	−23.0%	−46.1%	−59.0%
13 Aug 2025	$0.4500	−14.4%	−25.3%	−18.9%
3 Nov 2022	$2.92	−11.0%	−37.9%	−37.8%
24 Dec 2021	$15.67	+3.4%	−19.2%	−53.3%
26 Nov 2021	$24.31	−15.9%	−44.0%	−37.6%
19 Oct 2021	$11.26	−4.1%	−18.5%	−35.3%
25 Aug 2021	$11.71	−13.2%	+4.9%	−39.5%
29 Jun 2021	$8.49	open	open	open

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Gitcoin signals

50% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 25 cases 15% rise in a dayStrong evidence · 23 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 47 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 56 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 52 cases 30% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 26 cases

Full Gitcoin record

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