What happens to Kava after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2019, Kava has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 73% of the time, with a median move of +4.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for KAVA is −0.6%.

Weak evidence41

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 62% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201911last on 19 May 2022

Higher after 7 days73%ordinary: 48%

Median 7-day move+4.6%ordinary: −0.6%

Could be luck62%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−23% / +53%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary KAVA drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	11	27%	−2.2%	−5.7% to +0.1%	+0.1%	−2.3%	32%	43
3 days	11	36%	−3.9%	−4.3% to +8.3%	−0.1%	−3.9%	46%	18
7 days	11	73%	+4.6%	+0.3% to +9.2%	−0.6%	+5.2%	62%	41
14 days	11	45%	−2.9%	−15.5% to +9.0%	−1.7%	−1.2%	96%	7
30 days	11	64%	+30.5%	−12.3% to +43.0%	−4.8%	+35.3%	10%	50

“Ordinary median” is the median move of KAVA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 18%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−14.1%ordinary KAVA: −8.0%

1 case in 4 dipped past−19.7%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way91%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+19.5%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+4.3%ordinary: −0.9%

Ahead after costs73%ordinary: 47%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was +6.6%, and in the later 5 it was +3.3%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
19 May 2022	$2.51	−1.6%	−2.1%	−39.6%
27 Jul 2021	$5.53	−3.9%	+10.9%	+37.8%
5 Jun 2021	$4.76	−1.4%	−23.5%	−6.2%
1 Apr 2021	$7.08	−2.2%	+2.7%	−18.3%
12 Mar 2021	$5.82	+7.9%	+6.0%	+20.0%
9 Feb 2021	$4.10	−2.2%	+12.2%	+31.2%
19 Jan 2021	$2.23	+1.5%	+4.6%	+125.9%
8 Aug 2020	$4.24	+9.6%	+7.4%	−43.1%
19 Jul 2020	$2.91	−9.3%	−19.8%	+48.3%
12 Jul 2020	$1.90	−12.0%	+53.0%	+115.2%
25 May 2020	$0.8642	−7.5%	+3.0%	+30.5%

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Kava signals

40% drop in 30 daysStrong evidence · 35 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 47 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 59 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 59 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 44 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 58 cases

Full Kava record

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