What happens to BNB after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2017, BNB has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 7 times. In the 7 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 43% of the time, with a median move of −5.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BNB is +0.5%.

Too few cases

With 7 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20177last on 11 Apr 2021

Higher after 7 days43%ordinary: 53%

Median 7-day move−5.1%ordinary: +0.5%

Could be luck13%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−33% / +144%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary BNB drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 7 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	7	71%	+8.9%	+2.6% to +21.4%	+0.1%	+8.7%	under 0.1%
3 days	7	57%	+4.6%	−5.3% to +19.4%	+0.2%	+4.4%	7.2%
7 days	7	43%	−5.1%	−7.1% to +75.4%	+0.5%	−5.6%	13%
14 days	7	71%	+62.3%	−1.8% to +75.9%	+1.3%	+61.0%	under 0.1%
30 days	7	71%	+42.5%	+3.6% to +173.7%	+2.5%	+40.1%	0.2%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of BNB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 13%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−18.6%ordinary BNB: −5.3%

1 case in 4 dipped past−27.5%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way71%ordinary: 26%

Typical best point+44.5%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−5.4%ordinary: +0.2%

Ahead after costs43%ordinary: 51%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
11 Apr 2021	$525.9	+13.5%	−8.5%	+27.8%
19 Feb 2021	$333.1	−24.0%	−33.4%	−20.6%
12 Feb 2021	$136.6	−2.4%	+143.8%	+92.7%
5 Feb 2021	$67.70	+7.6%	+101.8%	+254.7%
5 Jan 2018	$14.89	+51.8%	+49.1%	−43.9%
26 Dec 2017	$9.25	+8.9%	−5.8%	+42.5%
16 Dec 2017	$4.64	+29.3%	−5.1%	+317.0%

The 12 most recent. All 7 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other BNB signals

20% rise in 3 daysSome evidence · 28 cases 50% rise in 30 daysWeak evidence · 42 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 82 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 53 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 32 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 87 cases

Full BNB record

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