What happens to VeChain after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2018, VeChain has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 11 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of −0.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for VET is −0.8%.

No better than chance16

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 98% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 201811last on 3 Dec 2024

Higher after 7 days50%ordinary: 46%

Median 7-day move−0.3%ordinary: −0.8%

Could be luck98%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−29% / +60%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary VET drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	40%	−4.4%	−8.1% to +0.9%	−0.1%	−4.3%	4.0%	70
3 days	10	40%	−0.9%	−6.1% to +10.2%	−0.3%	−0.5%	94%	17
7 days	10	50%	−0.3%	−19.7% to +27.7%	−0.8%	+0.6%	98%	16
14 days	10	60%	+8.2%	−9.2% to +25.9%	−1.7%	+9.9%	55%	28
30 days	10	60%	+10.4%	−25.7% to +36.1%	−4.4%	+14.8%	67%	27

“Ordinary median” is the median move of VET over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 87%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−14.0%ordinary VET: −8.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−32.3%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way70%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+15.4%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−0.6%ordinary: −1.1%

Ahead after costs50%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
3 Dec 2024	$0.07790	−12.8%	−28.5%	−38.0%
24 Nov 2024	$0.04533	−10.7%	+1.7%	+16.7%
15 Feb 2024	$0.04585	+1.0%	−2.2%	−11.8%
30 Mar 2022	$0.08522	−8.4%	−22.8%	−43.1%
17 Apr 2021	$0.2264	+11.9%	−21.2%	−30.3%
10 Apr 2021	$0.1419	−1.8%	+59.5%	+42.8%
11 Feb 2021	$0.04256	+27.7%	+28.0%	+58.7%
6 Jan 2021	$0.03082	−7.0%	−15.4%	+4.1%
30 Dec 2020	$0.02020	−7.2%	+52.6%	+37.8%
5 Jul 2020	$0.01431	+0.8%	+26.9%	+30.9%
17 Aug 2018	$0.01492	open	open	open

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other VeChain signals

RSI rises above 70Strong evidence · 39 cases Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 34 cases Five green days in a rowWeak evidence · 33 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 50 cases Five red days in a rowWeak evidence · 38 cases

Full VeChain record

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