What happens to Chiliz after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2019, Chiliz has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 12 times. In the 12 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 42% of the time, with a median move of −2.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CHZ is −0.7%.

Weak evidence35

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 88% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201912last on 30 Oct 2021

Higher after 7 days42%ordinary: 48%

Median 7-day move−2.9%ordinary: −0.7%

Could be luck88%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−44% / +311%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary CHZ drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 12 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	12	42%	−5.9%	−10.9% to +12.4%	0.0%	−5.9%	1.1%	86
3 days	12	50%	−1.3%	−5.0% to +12.0%	−0.3%	−1.0%	88%	9
7 days	12	42%	−2.9%	−16.9% to +28.8%	−0.7%	−2.3%	88%	35
14 days	12	58%	+1.7%	−19.7% to +55.7%	−0.9%	+2.6%	94%	9
30 days	12	50%	−4.9%	−32.4% to +225.2%	−1.9%	−3.0%	96%	8

“Ordinary median” is the median move of CHZ over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 55%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−21.7%ordinary CHZ: −8.6%

1 case in 4 dipped past−25.6%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way83%ordinary: 44%

Typical best point+31.2%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−3.2%ordinary: −1.0%

Ahead after costs42%ordinary: 47%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was −4.6%, and in the later 5 it was −1.7%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
30 Oct 2021	$0.5248	−20.5%	−3.6%	−12.5%
16 Apr 2021	$0.7700	−19.7%	−44.1%	−43.4%
16 Mar 2021	$0.5200	+11.6%	−2.3%	+2.6%
9 Mar 2021	$0.2670	−6.9%	+94.8%	+83.1%
2 Mar 2021	$0.06498	+31.2%	+310.8%	+651.8%
21 Feb 2021	$0.05356	−10.8%	−5.3%	+848.4%
13 Feb 2021	$0.03666	−5.5%	+37.7%	+1552.0%
27 Dec 2020	$0.02400	+14.9%	−18.7%	−14.0%
14 Aug 2020	$0.01978	−6.4%	−16.8%	−38.4%
12 Feb 2020	$0.01310	+27.2%	+1.0%	−52.9%
3 Nov 2019	$0.01594	+7.5%	−17.0%	−30.5%
18 Oct 2019	$0.00854	−11.4%	+25.9%	+60.9%

The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Chiliz signals

Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayStrong evidence · 92 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 73 cases Volatility squeezeWeak evidence · 24 cases 30% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 35 cases 20% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 38 cases Bitcoin drops 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 75 cases

Full Chiliz record

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