What happens to Ethereum Name Service after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2021, Ethereum Name Service has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 5 times. In the 4 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of +3.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ENS is −1.1%.

Too few cases

With 4 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20215last on 27 Nov 2024

Higher after 7 days50%ordinary: 45%

Median 7-day move+3.9%ordinary: −1.1%

Could be luck41%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−30% / +25%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ENS drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 5 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	4	75%	+1.7%	+0.2% to +3.4%	−0.3%	+2.0%	38%
3 days	4	50%	+3.5%	−4.1% to +11.6%	−0.3%	+3.8%	34%
7 days	4	50%	+3.9%	−17.4% to +22.1%	−1.1%	+5.0%	41%
14 days	4	50%	−5.7%	−34.2% to +15.5%	−2.8%	−3.0%	73%
30 days	4	25%	−4.9%	−19.3% to +4.5%	−6.1%	+1.2%	92%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ENS over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 41%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.9%ordinary ENS: −8.5%

1 case in 4 dipped past−19.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way50%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+23.3%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+3.6%ordinary: −1.4%

Ahead after costs50%ordinary: 45%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
27 Nov 2024	$34.08	+1.3%	+25.2%	−1.1%
21 May 2024	$21.45	+2.1%	+21.0%	+21.4%
11 Jan 2024	$24.34	−2.9%	−13.2%	−8.7%
1 May 2022	$24.30	+7.2%	−30.0%	−51.2%
25 Nov 2021	$68.31	open	open	open

The 12 most recent. All 5 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Ethereum Name Service signals

10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 48 cases Bitcoin drops 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 51 cases 7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 85 cases Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in controlWeak evidence · 21 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 31 cases

Full Ethereum Name Service record

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