Chainlink · LINK/USDT · daily
What happens to Chainlink after a 50% rise in 7 days?
Since 2019, Chainlink has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 70% of the time, with a median move of +5.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LINK is +0.1%.
No better than chance26
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 65% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | 30% | −1.8% | −5.6% to +1.0% | +0.1% | −1.9% | 45% | 25 |
| 3 days | 10 | 50% | +0.3% | −10.4% to +6.3% | +0.1% | +0.2% | 98% | 16 |
| 7 days | 10 | 70% | +5.6% | −2.9% to +17.4% | +0.1% | +5.5% | 65% | 26 |
| 14 days | 10 | 90% | +15.7% | +3.9% to +26.2% | +0.9% | +14.8% | 29% | 30 |
| 30 days | 10 | 70% | +38.6% | +0.6% to +65.2% | +1.9% | +36.7% | 12% | 55 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of LINK over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 21%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2023 | $11.06 | −1.2% | +5.2% | +31.0% |
| 18 Jan 2021 | $22.03 | −6.7% | +5.9% | +46.3% |
| 6 Jan 2021 | $17.23 | −7.4% | −7.5% | +52.6% |
| 15 Aug 2020 | $19.23 | −2.2% | −17.8% | −36.9% |
| 8 Aug 2020 | $12.71 | +8.7% | +51.3% | −1.9% |
| 12 Jul 2020 | $7.33 | −2.3% | +10.1% | +77.2% |
| 12 Apr 2020 | $3.42 | −1.4% | +5.0% | +8.1% |
| 28 Jun 2019 | $3.04 | +22.2% | +19.8% | −27.1% |
| 13 Jun 2019 | $1.87 | −12.2% | −5.5% | +69.4% |
| 14 May 2019 | $0.8280 | +1.8% | +42.5% | +125.6% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tellor | 21 | 38% | −12.1% | −11.7% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Fetch.ai | 22 | 45% | −1.9% | −0.6% | Weak evidence |
50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins
Other Chainlink signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals