What happens to Livepeer after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2021, Livepeer has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 8 times. In the 8 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 38% of the time, with a median move of −6.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LPT is −1.7%.

Too few cases

With 8 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20218last on 30 May 2025

Higher after 7 days38%ordinary: 43%

Median 7-day move−6.3%ordinary: −1.7%

Could be luck33%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−39% / +33%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary LPT drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 8 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	8	63%	+5.3%	−2.5% to +25.2%	−0.3%	+5.6%	0.4%
3 days	8	38%	−9.9%	−14.4% to +19.4%	−0.8%	−9.1%	0.7%
7 days	8	38%	−6.3%	−13.7% to +2.0%	−1.7%	−4.6%	33%
14 days	8	38%	−4.6%	−26.1% to +0.2%	−3.3%	−1.3%	86%
30 days	8	50%	−7.0%	−26.9% to +19.4%	−7.2%	+0.3%	98%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of LPT over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 33%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−18.2%ordinary LPT: −9.1%

1 case in 4 dipped past−24.3%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way63%ordinary: 45%

Typical best point+23.6%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−6.6%ordinary: −2.0%

Ahead after costs38%ordinary: 43%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
30 May 2025	$11.75	−17.5%	−38.7%	−43.6%
6 Dec 2024	$23.01	−5.9%	−24.6%	−27.9%
8 Mar 2024	$23.27	+0.1%	+1.9%	−26.6%
16 Feb 2024	$14.41	+24.6%	−4.7%	+52.8%
11 Aug 2023	$6.21	+27.2%	+2.3%	+1.9%
8 Nov 2021	$49.32	+45.2%	+32.8%	−15.8%
18 Oct 2021	$28.21	+10.6%	−7.9%	+97.9%
30 Jul 2021	$19.07	−1.4%	−10.0%	+8.3%

The 12 most recent. All 8 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Livepeer signals

15% rise in a dayStrong evidence · 33 cases 30% rise in 7 daysSome evidence · 27 cases 20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 47 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 47 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 62 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 55 cases

Full Livepeer record

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