What happens to Fetch.ai after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2019, Fetch.ai has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 22 times. In the 22 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 45% of the time, with a median move of −1.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for FET is −1.2%.

Weak evidence37

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 97% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201922last on 16 Mar 2026

Higher after 7 days45%ordinary: 47%

Median 7-day move−1.9%ordinary: −1.2%

Could be luck97%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−26% / +59%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary FET drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 22 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	22	45%	−2.8%	−6.2% to +6.9%	−0.3%	−2.4%	24%	24
3 days	22	59%	+1.0%	−3.9% to +9.5%	−0.4%	+1.5%	79%	40
7 days	22	45%	−1.9%	−11.3% to +21.7%	−1.2%	−0.6%	97%	37
14 days	22	55%	+9.7%	−10.6% to +43.5%	−2.0%	+11.7%	37%	23
30 days	22	64%	+38.1%	−3.1% to +111.2%	−4.5%	+42.7%	5.2%	91

“Ordinary median” is the median move of FET over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 86%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−16.3%ordinary FET: −10.3%

1 case in 4 dipped past−21.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way82%ordinary: 51%

Typical best point+18.9%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−2.2%ordinary: −1.5%

Ahead after costs45%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 13 the gap over 7 days was −0.3%, and in the later 9 it was −1.0%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
16 Mar 2026	$0.2379	+1.2%	−4.7%	−3.6%
7 Nov 2025	$0.3657	−6.8%	−25.9%	−35.5%
24 Aug 2024	$1.27	+7.7%	−10.7%	+30.2%
8 Mar 2024	$2.75	+12.1%	−2.2%	−1.4%
1 Mar 2024	$1.72	+4.5%	+59.2%	+77.0%
20 Feb 2024	$1.05	+8.6%	+2.0%	+138.4%
28 Oct 2023	$0.3517	+4.0%	+2.6%	+46.1%
5 Feb 2023	$0.4498	−3.8%	−11.5%	−11.0%
14 Jan 2023	$0.2384	−4.5%	+12.4%	+61.7%
7 Jan 2023	$0.1578	−11.3%	+51.1%	+174.3%
9 Dec 2022	$0.1202	−22.5%	−24.5%	+16.5%
1 May 2021	$0.6741	−5.8%	−17.7%	−51.4%

The 12 most recent. All 22 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Fetch.ai signals

100% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 33 cases 50% rise in 30 daysStrong evidence · 78 cases Breakout to a 90-day highStrong evidence · 32 cases 30% drop in 7 daysSome evidence · 26 cases 15% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 54 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 55 cases

Full Fetch.ai record

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