What happens to Dogecoin after a 50% rise in 7 days?

Since 2019, Dogecoin has shown a 50% rise in 7 days 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 80% of the time, with a median move of +10.3%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DOGE is −1.0%.

Weak evidence54

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 13% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201910last on 10 Nov 2024

Higher after 7 days80%ordinary: 45%

Median 7-day move+10.3%ordinary: −1.0%

Could be luck13%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−35% / +152%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary DOGE drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 10 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	10	60%	+11.9%	−5.9% to +26.3%	−0.1%	+12.0%	0.3%	70
3 days	10	70%	+19.1%	−3.6% to +31.4%	−0.4%	+19.5%	0.7%	70
7 days	10	80%	+10.3%	+2.1% to +28.6%	−1.0%	+11.2%	13%	54
14 days	10	60%	+13.9%	−10.7% to +81.7%	−1.5%	+15.5%	17%	45
30 days	10	70%	+27.1%	−0.8% to +53.9%	−2.5%	+29.6%	14%	53

“Ordinary median” is the median move of DOGE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.5%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.6%ordinary DOGE: −6.9%

1 case in 4 dipped past−35.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way50%ordinary: 35%

Typical best point+49.8%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+10.0%ordinary: −1.3%

Ahead after costs80%ordinary: 44%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
10 Nov 2024	$0.2778	+26.5%	+32.1%	+41.8%
1 Mar 2024	$0.1393	+1.9%	+18.1%	+57.9%
29 Oct 2022	$0.1218	−3.3%	+2.2%	−21.9%
3 May 2021	$0.4414	+22.0%	+2.1%	−4.1%
21 Apr 2021	$0.3058	−14.8%	+5.7%	+17.0%
14 Apr 2021	$0.1214	+50.2%	+151.8%	+360.9%
6 Feb 2021	$0.05766	+35.2%	+14.9%	+9.2%
28 Jan 2021	$0.03650	+25.8%	+45.0%	+37.2%
2 Jan 2021	$0.01053	−6.7%	−3.3%	+230.8%
8 Jul 2020	$0.00477	−9.3%	−35.2%	−26.6%

The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Tellor	21	38%	−12.1%	−11.7%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	22	45%	−1.9%	−0.6%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Dogecoin signals

10% jump in a dayStrong evidence · 62 cases Five red days in a rowSome evidence · 29 cases 20% rise in 3 daysSome evidence · 35 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 89 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 39 cases RSI rises above 70Weak evidence · 38 cases

Full Dogecoin record

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