Research note · 8 Nov to 14 Nov 2026
A broad sell-off: 92 of 94 coins lower on the week
Bitcoin fell 15.4% and Ether 21.0% in the seven days to 14 November. Oversold readings piled up; DODO went the other way, and its own history is not kind to rallies like this one.
Provyan Research · 15 Nov 2026 · Figures from Binance daily closes to 14 Nov 2026
The week
Bitcoin closed on 14 November at $64,150, down 15.4% in seven days and 49.2% below its record close. Ether did worse, losing 21.0%. The selling was not confined to a few names: 92 of the 94 coins we track ended the week lower, the median coin gave up 18.1%, and 80 of them now sit below their 200-day average.
Kava fell 59%, Harmony 40% and Uniswap 32%. Bitcoin's 14-day RSI closed at 19.7 and Ether's at 19.2. Readings that low are rare and tend to cluster in the sharpest sell-offs, which is part of why they deserve a careful look rather than a reflex.
What fired
From 8 to 12 November, 206 signals fired across 77 coins. The most common was a 30% drop in 30 days, on 31 coins, followed by RSI dropping below 30 on 19. The signals from 13 and 14 November, 62 in all, are sealed in the public ledger and stay out of this note until they are revealed.
A crowded week like this one is a reminder of why each study is measured against the same coin's ordinary days. When almost everything is falling, a signal has to beat a weak baseline, not just look good in isolation.
The rally that history doubts
DODO was the week's exception, up 46.6%. The move set off a 20% rise in 7 days on 12 November, and that study has the strongest evidence of anything that fired this week: a proof score of 98 from 46 past cases.
The record points the other way from the price. Seven days after this signal on DODO, the price was higher in 34.8% of cases, against 46.9% on an ordinary day, and the median move was a loss of 7.9% against 0.8%. After correcting for the number of studies we run, the chance of a gap that size appearing by luck is 5.1%. That is a description of what followed in the past, not a forecast of what follows now.
Where history leaned up
Two of the week's oversold signals have a better record. After a 15% drop in 7 days on XRP, across 58 cases, the price was higher a week later 65.5% of the time, against 46.0% on ordinary days. On Stellar, RSI dropping below 30 was followed by a higher price 70% of the time across 30 cases, against 44.1%.
Neither number says how deep the dip ran first. Both study pages show that, and it is worth reading before taking either figure at face value.
The ledger
Sealing started on 13 November. Each call is graded seven days after it is made, so the first graded results will appear in next week's note, misses included.
The numbers
Most common signals
| Signal | Coins |
|---|---|
| 30% drop in 30 days | 31 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 19 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 18 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 13 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 12 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 12 |
| 5% drop in a day | 12 |
| Five red days in a row | 9 |
Signals this week with a strong history
| Day | Coin | Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Ordinary | Median | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov |  DODO | 20% rise in 7 days | 46 | 35% | 47% | −7.9% | 98 |
| 10 Nov |  XRP | 15% drop in 7 days | 58 | 66% | 46% | +3.2% | 91 |
| 8 Nov |  Harmony | Volume spike on a red day | 25 | 68% | 45% | +11.6% | 91 |
| 8 Nov |  Stellar | RSI drops below 30 | 30 | 70% | 44% | +4.7% | 84 |
| 12 Nov | DODO | 10% jump in a day | 72 | 35% | 47% | −5.9% | 83 |
| 10 Nov |  Prom | 7% drop in a day | 52 | 62% | 49% | +3.5% | 76 |
| 12 Nov | DODO | 10% rise in 3 days | 104 | 39% | 47% | −4.4% | 57 |
| 11 Nov |  Uniswap | Extreme sell pressure | 52 | 33% | 49% | −5.3% | 56 |
Figures describe what followed these signals in the past, as they stood on 14 Nov 2026. They are not forecasts.
Signals from 13 Nov and 14 Nov are sealed in the public ledger (62 in all) and are left out above until they are revealed.
How the numbers are made: methodology. All notes: research.