Extreme sell pressure: does it work in crypto?
Market sell orders taking an unusually large share of volume means sellers are hitting bids to get out rather than waiting. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 5,085 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence1 of 940 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance46 of 94coins
Scored cases5,085since 2017
The rule. Share of volume from market buys in the bottom 3% of the previous 180 days.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uniswap | 52 | 33% | −5.3% | −0.4% | −4.9% | 24% | 56 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Quant | 47 | 34% | −3.7% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 47% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 53 | 32% | −7.0% | −3.0% | −4.0% | 37% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 66 | 35% | −3.5% | −0.8% | −2.7% | 43% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 54 | 37% | −4.5% | −1.2% | −3.3% | 49% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 65 | 42% | −3.8% | −0.4% | −3.4% | 54% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 35 | 54% | +1.2% | −3.4% | +4.6% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 90 | 46% | −1.1% | +0.5% | −1.5% | 39% | 50 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 24 | 58% | +5.1% | −1.9% | +7.0% | 26% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 35 | 40% | −5.0% | −1.5% | −3.4% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 65 | 40% | −2.4% | +0.1% | −2.5% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 50 | 56% | +1.6% | −0.9% | +2.5% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 58 | 45% | −3.0% | −1.0% | −1.9% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 33 | 55% | +4.1% | −0.5% | +4.6% | 50% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 52 | 38% | −3.7% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 39 | 36% | −1.3% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 51 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.4% | +2.2% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 75 | 37% | −2.7% | −0.8% | −1.9% | 60% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 56 | 38% | −2.1% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 83% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 47 | 49% | −0.3% | +0.6% | −0.9% | 86% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 54 | 41% | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.5% | 84% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 52 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.7% | +1.9% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 71 | 41% | −3.1% | −1.3% | −1.8% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 25 | 56% | +3.9% | −0.2% | +4.1% | 35% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 53 | 53% | +0.4% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 45 | 40% | −3.2% | −1.7% | −1.6% | 87% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 62 | 56% | +0.7% | −0.4% | +1.1% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 52 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 80 | 41% | −1.7% | −1.0% | −0.7% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 65 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 45 | 47% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 44 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 92% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 67 | 39% | −2.9% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 53 | 49% | −0.1% | −1.3% | +1.2% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 74 | 53% | +1.0% | −0.1% | +1.2% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 64 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.6% | +1.1% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 56 | 34% | −2.5% | −1.2% | −1.4% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 49 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.5% | −0.8% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 50 | 42% | −3.0% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 77 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.2% | +0.5% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 61 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.7% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 61 | 46% | −1.2% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 65 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 47 | 53% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 60 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.8% | +0.4% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 57 | 37% | −1.8% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 33 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 94% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 26 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.9% | +3.0% | 74% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 56 | 43% | −3.7% | −0.5% | −3.1% | 57% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 27 | 52% | +5.2% | −1.4% | +6.6% | 37% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 42 | 43% | −2.9% | −1.6% | −1.3% | 80% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 42 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.9% | +1.5% | 75% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 38 | 58% | +0.9% | −1.6% | +2.4% | 64% | 24 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 84 | 46% | −0.5% | +0.5% | −1.0% | 72% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 57 | 42% | −2.5% | −0.7% | −1.8% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 50 | 44% | −2.7% | −1.2% | −1.6% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 86 | 45% | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.6% | 68% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 77 | 44% | −1.0% | −0.2% | −0.7% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 58 | 41% | −1.8% | −1.1% | −0.8% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 41 | 37% | −2.3% | −1.5% | −0.8% | 94% | 22 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 69 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.8% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 48 | 35% | −2.5% | −1.5% | −1.0% | 89% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 83 | 48% | −0.2% | +0.3% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 79 | 47% | −1.2% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 77 | 60% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 74 | 38% | −1.4% | −1.1% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 81 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.0% | +0.6% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 58 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.1% | +0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 49 | 47% | −0.8% | −0.1% | −0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 70 | 43% | −0.6% | −1.2% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 63 | 44% | −0.4% | −0.8% | +0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 56 | 41% | −2.0% | −1.5% | −0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 58 | 43% | −1.2% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 39 | 41% | −1.3% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 62 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.7% | +0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 41 | 39% | −2.4% | −1.7% | −0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 68 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 36 | 42% | −3.5% | −2.2% | −1.2% | 79% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 59 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.6% | +0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 52 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.3% | +0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 57 | 37% | −1.1% | −0.4% | −0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 61 | 51% | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 40 | 43% | −1.5% | −1.4% | −0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 69 | 43% | −0.4% | −0.5% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 56 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.6% | +0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 52 | 46% | −1.0% | −1.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 72 | 40% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 30 | 30% | −3.3% | −1.7% | −1.5% | 87% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 30 | 23% | −4.3% | −2.5% | −1.7% | 87% | 18 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 34 | 41% | −2.4% | −1.7% | −0.7% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 30 | 40% | −2.8% | −2.0% | −0.8% | 94% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 31 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 0.0% | 100% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 24 | 42% | −3.5% | −2.7% | −0.8% | 95% | 13 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 24 | 38% | −2.9% | −2.7% | −0.1% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.