Extreme buy pressure: does it work in crypto?
Market buy orders taking an unusually large share of volume means buyers are paying up to get in rather than waiting. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 5,005 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence0 of 940 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance48 of 94coins
Scored cases5,005since 2017
The rule. Share of volume from market buys in the top 3% of the previous 180 days.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reserve Rights | 52 | 54% | +3.6% | −1.3% | +4.9% | 39% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 59 | 36% | −4.6% | −1.3% | −3.3% | 45% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 59 | 54% | +2.1% | −0.2% | +2.3% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 55 | 56% | +2.9% | −1.2% | +4.2% | 45% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 40 | 57% | +2.5% | −1.2% | +3.7% | 55% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 79 | 39% | −0.8% | +0.7% | −1.4% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 55 | 29% | −3.4% | −1.0% | −2.4% | 59% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 45 | 53% | +0.9% | −0.9% | +1.8% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 72 | 38% | −2.8% | −0.6% | −2.2% | 56% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 87 | 44% | −1.1% | +0.5% | −1.5% | 54% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 73 | 40% | −2.8% | −0.8% | −1.9% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 73 | 56% | +2.2% | +0.1% | +2.1% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 33 | 55% | +2.0% | −2.2% | +4.2% | 50% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 64 | 42% | −2.7% | −0.5% | −2.2% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 47 | 38% | −3.2% | −1.3% | −1.8% | 76% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 32 | 56% | +2.2% | −2.5% | +4.8% | 46% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 52 | 46% | −3.6% | −1.2% | −2.4% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 86 | 44% | −0.3% | +0.5% | −0.8% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 48 | 56% | +0.8% | −0.7% | +1.5% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 59 | 39% | −1.9% | −0.4% | −1.5% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 48 | 54% | +0.7% | −1.2% | +2.0% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 59 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.3% | +2.2% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 60 | 62% | +1.6% | +0.6% | +1.0% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 52 | 44% | −1.3% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 54 | 39% | −1.4% | −0.1% | −1.4% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 47 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +0.6% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 64 | 48% | −0.1% | −1.2% | +1.1% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 85 | 36% | −2.0% | −0.8% | −1.1% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 51 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.1% | +0.9% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 47 | 34% | −2.7% | −1.7% | −1.0% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 40 | 45% | −0.5% | −1.6% | +1.1% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 31 | 55% | +0.9% | −1.7% | +2.7% | 71% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 48 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.7% | +0.8% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 57 | 35% | −2.3% | −1.8% | −0.5% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 67 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 70 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.8% | +0.4% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 82 | 51% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 87 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.2% | −0.1% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 69 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.0% | +0.1% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 28 | 29% | −6.7% | −2.7% | −4.0% | 62% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 32 | 41% | −4.0% | −2.0% | −2.1% | 79% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 54 | 39% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 28 | 57% | +2.4% | −0.5% | +2.9% | 74% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 29 | 41% | −0.9% | −1.5% | +0.6% | 96% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 24 | 54% | +1.3% | −1.4% | +2.7% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 24 | 38% | −4.0% | −1.9% | −2.1% | 86% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 47 | 57% | +1.4% | −0.4% | +1.7% | 58% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 89 | 53% | +2.0% | +0.3% | +1.7% | 55% | 24 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 65 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.8% | +1.5% | 67% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 46 | 54% | +1.3% | −0.9% | +2.2% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 52 | 33% | −3.7% | −1.6% | −2.1% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 42 | 33% | −3.3% | −1.4% | −1.9% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 49 | 43% | −1.1% | −3.0% | +1.8% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 52 | 54% | +0.3% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 43 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.7% | +1.7% | 86% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 68 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | +1.4% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 26 | 54% | +3.0% | −1.5% | +4.5% | 47% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 49 | 43% | −2.2% | −1.3% | −0.9% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 61 | 54% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.0% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 42 | 43% | −2.7% | −1.7% | −1.0% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 62 | 48% | −1.5% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 82 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.1% | −1.0% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 40 | 43% | −2.7% | −1.7% | −1.0% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 43 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.5% | +1.1% | 88% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 52 | 42% | −0.4% | −1.4% | +1.0% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 56 | 48% | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 72 | 44% | −0.6% | −1.1% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 62 | 32% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 59 | 44% | −1.1% | −0.8% | −0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 46 | 39% | −1.2% | −1.5% | +0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 69 | 46% | −1.0% | −0.5% | −0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 59 | 46% | −1.5% | −1.0% | −0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 61 | 51% | 0.0% | −0.6% | +0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 48 | 38% | −2.5% | −2.2% | −0.2% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 48 | 38% | −2.3% | −1.7% | −0.6% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 54 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.2% | −0.6% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 55 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.4% | +0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 39 | 36% | −2.5% | −1.9% | −0.6% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 61 | 46% | −0.3% | −0.6% | +0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 52 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 61 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.4% | +0.7% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 63 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.0% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 71 | 45% | −1.0% | −0.9% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 55 | 42% | −1.2% | −1.1% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 58 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.1% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 38 | 42% | −1.3% | −1.6% | +0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 49 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.3% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 63 | 48% | −1.2% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Request | 50 | 46% | −0.4% | −0.5% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 34 | 53% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 92% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 24 | 54% | +2.3% | −0.2% | +2.5% | 60% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 28 | 25% | −2.2% | −3.4% | +1.2% | 92% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 28 | 50% | −0.9% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 97% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 25 | 32% | −1.9% | −2.7% | +0.8% | 96% | 14 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.