After a 5% drop in a day: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 13,144 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence1 of 940 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance67 of 94coins
Scored cases13,144since 2017
The rule. Close at least 5% below the close one day earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shiba Inu | 106 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.5% | −2.7% | 18% | 66 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Beam | 78 | 42% | −3.7% | −0.5% | −3.1% | 46% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 119 | 58% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +1.0% | 51% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 82 | 38% | −3.7% | −1.5% | −2.2% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 123 | 38% | −3.4% | −1.3% | −2.1% | 48% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 114 | 46% | −1.9% | −0.3% | −1.6% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 74 | 51% | +1.4% | −0.2% | +1.6% | 52% | 49 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 88 | 32% | −4.0% | −1.9% | −2.1% | 48% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 89 | 37% | −4.7% | −2.7% | −2.0% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 163 | 43% | −3.2% | −1.2% | −2.0% | 45% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 148 | 37% | −3.6% | −1.7% | −1.9% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 126 | 40% | −3.6% | −1.7% | −1.9% | 53% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 108 | 43% | −2.2% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 61% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 140 | 39% | −3.1% | −1.7% | −1.4% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 150 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 174 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.1% | +0.6% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 147 | 47% | −0.9% | −0.1% | −0.9% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 183 | 47% | −0.9% | +0.1% | −1.1% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 100 | 39% | −4.0% | −2.7% | −1.2% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 166 | 42% | −2.0% | −1.2% | −0.8% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 84 | 37% | −2.5% | −1.6% | −0.9% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 132 | 39% | −2.3% | −1.5% | −0.8% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 176 | 43% | −1.9% | −0.4% | −1.5% | 69% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 143 | 44% | −1.5% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 83% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 112 | 44% | −2.3% | −1.7% | −0.6% | 90% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 ORDI | 87 | 40% | −2.5% | −1.9% | −0.6% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 193 | 48% | −1.2% | −1.3% | +0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 110 | 40% | −3.8% | −1.1% | −2.7% | 31% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 121 | 40% | −3.7% | −1.4% | −2.3% | 51% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 160 | 42% | −2.2% | −0.6% | −1.6% | 49% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 131 | 44% | −3.7% | −1.7% | −2.0% | 59% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 115 | 47% | −0.4% | +0.5% | −0.9% | 68% | 23 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 145 | 58% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +1.2% | 49% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 95 | 39% | −2.9% | −1.5% | −1.4% | 76% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 79 | 43% | −3.0% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 80% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 103 | 44% | −3.0% | −1.4% | −1.6% | 72% | 23 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 155 | 35% | −2.9% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 56% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 144 | 35% | −4.6% | −3.0% | −1.6% | 65% | 23 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 192 | 44% | −2.2% | −0.8% | −1.4% | 51% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Request | 98 | 45% | −1.4% | −0.5% | −0.9% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 187 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.0% | 68% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 174 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.9% | +1.0% | 72% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 150 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.1% | −1.1% | 71% | 22 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 112 | 39% | −1.8% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 74% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 85 | 40% | −1.2% | −2.2% | +1.0% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 90 | 46% | −1.6% | −0.3% | −1.3% | 84% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 212 | 44% | −2.4% | −1.3% | −1.1% | 75% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 85 | 46% | −2.9% | −2.0% | −0.9% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 195 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.1% | +0.8% | 76% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 160 | 49% | −0.3% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 39 | 44% | −0.8% | −0.3% | −0.5% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 162 | 42% | −2.4% | −1.4% | −1.0% | 78% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 198 | 46% | −1.6% | −0.6% | −1.0% | 77% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 95 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.6% | +1.1% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 177 | 51% | +0.4% | +0.1% | +0.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 134 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.0% | +0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 135 | 52% | +0.1% | −0.2% | +0.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 155 | 45% | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 171 | 51% | +0.4% | −0.1% | +0.5% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 171 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.7% | 82% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 94 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.4% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 229 | 48% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 148 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 105 | 50% | +0.2% | +0.6% | −0.4% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 187 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.0% | +0.7% | 84% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 128 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 102 | 32% | −2.5% | −2.2% | −0.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 149 | 48% | −0.8% | −1.3% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 149 | 47% | −0.6% | −1.2% | +0.6% | 86% | 21 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 167 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.3% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 89 | 42% | −3.0% | −3.4% | +0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 129 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 137 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.3% | +0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 171 | 47% | −0.9% | −1.3% | +0.4% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 161 | 51% | +0.2% | +0.3% | −0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 140 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.3% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 143 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.0% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 175 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.2% | +0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 150 | 47% | −0.6% | −0.4% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 171 | 45% | −0.8% | −1.0% | +0.2% | 94% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 168 | 46% | −0.4% | −0.5% | +0.1% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 147 | 46% | −1.1% | −0.9% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 168 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.5% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 193 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.6% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 169 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.7% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 159 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.6% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 179 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.7% | −0.2% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 153 | 44% | −2.0% | −1.8% | −0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 93 | 41% | −2.4% | −2.5% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 199 | 46% | −1.2% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 208 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.6% | +0.2% | 95% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 148 | 47% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 194 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 102 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.