Harmony signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily ONE candle since 1 Jun 2019 (2,724 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
ONE price · last close$0.0012514 Nov 2026 close: $0.00125 (7d −40.4%)
RSI (14)44.6between 30 and 70
Volume vs 30-day average0.51×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume50.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a red day | 25 | 68% | +11.6% | −1.3% | 5.8% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans up | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 23 | 61% | +7.9% | −1.3% | 21% | 59 | Some evidence · leans up | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 48 | 54% | +2.7% | −1.3% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 44 | 39% | −3.6% | −1.3% | 76% | 49 | Weak evidence | 13 Aug 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 43 | 58% | +1.3% | −1.3% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 59 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.3% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence | 2 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 67 | 39% | −2.9% | −1.3% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence | 11 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 32 | 56% | +2.6% | −1.3% | 61% | 47 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 35 | 57% | +0.6% | −1.3% | 84% | 45 | Weak evidence | 14 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 16 | 75% | +6.0% | −1.3% | 47% | 44 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 29 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.3% | 91% | 42 | Weak evidence | 4 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 92 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.3% | 72% | 23 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 34 | 53% | +2.3% | −1.3% | 64% | 23 | No better than chance | 31 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 34 | 47% | −5.0% | −1.3% | 62% | 23 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 79 | 42% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 64 | 44% | −1.9% | −1.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 17 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 33 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.3% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance | 12 Aug 2026 |
| Golden cross | 7 | 57% | +0.7% | −1.3% | 72% | Too few cases | 12 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 6 | 17% | −12.1% | −1.3% | 11% | Too few cases | 1 Mar 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% drop in 7 days | 23 | 70% | +11.6% | −1.3% | 5.8% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 34 | 35% | −6.7% | −1.3% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 63 | 49% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence | 15 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 50 | 38% | −4.4% | −1.3% | 62% | 25 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 54 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.3% | 77% | 23 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 29 | 48% | −6.6% | −1.3% | 48% | 23 | No better than chance | 15 Oct 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 212 | 44% | −2.4% | −1.3% | 75% | 22 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 143 | 43% | −2.4% | −1.3% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 155 | 46% | −1.7% | −1.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 152 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.3% | 90% | 21 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 87 | 48% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 101 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 159 | 49% | −0.9% | −1.3% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 59 | 44% | −2.0% | −1.3% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 44 | 50% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 109 | 43% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 206 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 81 | 48% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 23 | 35% | −2.3% | −1.3% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 22 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.3% | 97% | 12 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 17 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 97 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.3% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 80 | 55% | +2.2% | −1.3% | 39% | 26 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 19 | 37% | −2.8% | −1.3% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 15 | 47% | 0.0% | −1.3% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | $0.00171 | open |
| 8 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.00171 | open |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.00171 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | RSI rises above 70 | $0.00210 | −40.4% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.00180 | −24.3% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.00180 | −24.3% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.00117 | +79.2% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.00130 | −16.0% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.00146 | −9.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.