XRP · XRP/USDT · daily
What happens to XRP after a 15% drop in 7 days?
Since 2018, XRP has shown a 15% drop in 7 days 61 times. In the 58 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 66% of the time, with a median move of +3.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for XRP is −0.8%.
Strong evidence · leans up91
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 7.2% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is upward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 59 | 71% | +2.7% | −0.4% to +5.9% | 0.0% | +2.7% | 0.3% | 100 |
| 3 days | 59 | 66% | +3.6% | −2.6% to +7.5% | −0.3% | +3.9% | 0.7% | 100 |
| 7 days | 58 | 66% | +3.2% | −3.2% to +10.0% | −0.8% | +3.9% | 7.2% | 91 |
| 14 days | 58 | 59% | +1.6% | −6.1% to +12.1% | −1.6% | +3.3% | 49% | 26 |
| 30 days | 58 | 52% | +1.3% | −14.6% to +15.7% | −2.4% | +3.7% | 70% | 49 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of XRP over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.2%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 34 the gap over 7 days was +2.5%, and in the later 24 it was +4.7%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | $1.06 | −0.4% | open | open |
| 5 Jun 2026 | $1.10 | −0.4% | +3.2% | +5.4% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | $1.58 | −4.2% | −11.3% | −11.1% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | $2.21 | +6.3% | +8.4% | −5.0% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $2.37 | +0.5% | −3.2% | −0.2% |
| 8 Apr 2025 | $1.80 | +14.3% | +16.0% | +29.6% |
| 9 Mar 2025 | $2.14 | −5.5% | +7.3% | −16.0% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | $2.20 | 0.0% | +13.7% | +0.4% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | $2.53 | −5.8% | −4.5% | +2.9% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $2.21 | +7.2% | +12.3% | +7.3% |
| 6 Oct 2024 | $0.5336 | −0.9% | −0.3% | −3.7% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | $0.4889 | +3.5% | +16.3% | +14.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 61 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% below the close 7 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JUST | 40 | 63% | +4.1% | +3.5% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Prom | 35 | 66% | +4.0% | +4.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 36 | 61% | +3.4% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 59 | 63% | +2.0% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 54 | 57% | +3.1% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 67 | 58% | +2.6% | +2.8% | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 63 | 62% | +3.7% | +3.8% | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 44 | 55% | +1.5% | +3.8% | Weak evidence |
15% drop in 7 days across all 94 coins
Other XRP signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals