Five red days in a row: does it work in crypto?
Five losing days in a row tempts traders to bet on a bounce. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,607 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence3 of 943 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance39 of 94coins
Scored cases2,607since 2017
The rule. Fifth consecutive daily close below the open.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ConstitutionDAO | 20 | 65% | +10.6% | −1.3% | +11.9% | 5.8% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Aptos | 24 | 58% | +5.9% | −1.5% | +7.4% | 17% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Dogecoin | 29 | 55% | +5.3% | −1.0% | +6.2% | 8.9% | 62 | Some evidence · leans up |
 NEAR Protocol | 32 | 59% | +4.9% | −0.6% | +5.5% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 36 | 61% | +4.2% | +0.1% | +4.1% | 50% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 43 | 58% | +1.3% | −1.3% | +2.6% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 38 | 34% | −3.2% | −0.8% | −2.4% | 69% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 31 | 61% | +2.6% | −1.7% | +4.3% | 48% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 17 | 65% | +6.4% | −1.6% | +8.0% | 25% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 37 | 32% | −1.4% | +0.3% | −1.7% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 30 | 57% | +2.9% | −0.9% | +3.8% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 21 | 62% | +5.8% | −1.4% | +7.2% | 33% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 19 | 68% | +7.5% | −0.5% | +8.0% | 35% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 22 | 32% | −5.5% | −0.3% | −5.2% | 34% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 27 | 78% | +3.5% | +0.5% | +3.1% | 48% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 45 | 38% | −2.1% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 29 | 59% | +2.7% | −1.3% | +4.0% | 55% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 17 | 65% | +3.6% | −1.6% | +5.2% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 28 | 57% | +2.7% | −1.7% | +4.5% | 49% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 34 | 56% | +0.8% | −1.0% | +1.8% | 82% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 13 | 54% | +5.9% | −2.5% | +8.4% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 31 | 55% | +1.0% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 70% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 35 | 49% | −0.4% | +0.5% | −0.9% | 86% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 24 | 67% | +4.1% | −0.4% | +4.5% | 53% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 30 | 40% | −3.8% | −1.3% | −2.4% | 74% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 27 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.5% | −2.8% | 61% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 28 | 43% | −4.5% | −1.5% | −3.0% | 66% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 24 | 38% | −4.3% | −0.6% | −3.7% | 57% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 34 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.7% | +1.5% | 90% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 32 | 44% | −2.2% | −0.7% | −1.5% | 86% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 38 | 39% | −0.9% | −1.0% | +0.1% | 99% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 16 | 56% | +3.5% | −1.7% | +5.3% | 51% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 34 | 50% | −0.4% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 94% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 35 | 46% | −1.1% | −0.5% | −0.6% | 94% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 33 | 52% | +0.7% | −0.9% | +1.6% | 87% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 28 | 57% | +0.9% | −1.7% | +2.6% | 75% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 24 | 58% | +2.0% | −1.8% | +3.8% | 61% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 36 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 94% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 26 | 58% | +2.0% | +0.7% | +1.3% | 74% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 35 | 43% | −0.6% | −1.1% | +0.4% | 97% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 29 | 48% | −0.2% | −1.3% | +1.1% | 84% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 26 | 42% | −3.9% | −1.2% | −2.7% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 20 | 60% | +2.0% | −2.2% | +4.3% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 32 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.5% | +1.0% | 93% | 43 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 21 | 62% | +2.4% | −1.9% | +4.3% | 57% | 43 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 28 | 50% | −0.8% | −2.7% | +1.9% | 86% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 32 | 44% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +0.4% | 98% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 21 | 52% | +1.5% | −2.7% | +4.2% | 69% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 26 | 58% | +2.0% | −0.4% | +2.4% | 85% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 27 | 44% | −2.3% | −0.4% | −1.9% | 82% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 11 | 64% | +5.2% | −1.4% | +6.6% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 14 | 79% | +2.0% | −0.3% | +2.3% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 24 | 58% | +0.6% | −0.2% | +0.8% | 93% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 20 | 50% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +2.0% | 87% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 27 | 44% | −2.6% | −3.0% | +0.3% | 98% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 41 | 54% | +0.7% | −0.6% | +1.3% | 83% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 36 | 47% | −3.0% | −0.6% | −2.4% | 74% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 38 | 47% | −1.2% | −0.2% | −1.0% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 40 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.7% | +0.5% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 32 | 53% | +2.1% | −0.1% | +2.2% | 73% | 21 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 33 | 39% | −2.1% | −0.8% | −1.3% | 81% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 35 | 46% | −0.2% | −1.1% | +1.0% | 90% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 27 | 48% | −0.2% | −2.2% | +2.1% | 63% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 41 | 44% | −0.7% | −0.6% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 34 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.0% | +0.9% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 31 | 55% | +0.6% | −0.8% | +1.4% | 83% | 19 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 33 | 52% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +1.5% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 35 | 49% | −0.7% | −0.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 34 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 95% | 18 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 36 | 50% | −0.9% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 34 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 17 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 31 | 48% | 0.0% | −0.8% | +0.8% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 24 | 54% | +1.4% | −1.7% | +3.1% | 73% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 31 | 45% | −2.0% | −1.2% | −0.9% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 26 | 38% | −1.5% | −0.4% | −1.2% | 82% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 31 | 45% | −1.1% | −1.4% | +0.3% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 28 | 54% | +0.4% | −0.1% | +0.5% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 25 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.6% | +1.3% | 93% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 30 | 37% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 19 | 63% | +2.4% | −0.1% | +2.5% | 85% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 26 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.7% | +0.8% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 26 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.8% | 96% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 19 | 26% | −2.7% | −0.9% | −1.9% | 81% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 18 | 39% | −1.6% | −0.2% | −1.4% | 84% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Request | 25 | 44% | −0.3% | −0.5% | +0.2% | 98% | 13 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 20 | 40% | −2.6% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 20 | 50% | +1.5% | +0.6% | +0.8% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 20 | 40% | −3.2% | −1.9% | −1.3% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 20 | 40% | −2.1% | −1.1% | −1.0% | 94% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 17 | 47% | −1.3% | −3.4% | +2.1% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 20 | 40% | −1.9% | −1.5% | −0.4% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 20 | 50% | +0.4% | +0.1% | +0.2% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 19 | 53% | 0.0% | −0.3% | +0.3% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 12 | 50% | −0.5% | −2.0% | +1.5% | 93% | 9 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.