Uniswap signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily UNI candle since 17 Sep 2020 (2,250 days). 3 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
UNI price · last close$4.8914 Nov 2026 close: $4.89 (7d −32.4%)
RSI (14)28under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.59×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume41.7%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−89%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% drop in a week | 36 | 75% | +6.9% | −0.4% | 11% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 18 | 72% | +8.9% | −0.4% | 18% | 64 | Some evidence · leans up | 2 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 52 | 33% | −5.3% | −0.4% | 24% | 56 | Some evidence · leans down | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 48 | 71% | +3.8% | −0.4% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 59 | 39% | −1.9% | −0.4% | 80% | 48 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 32 | 38% | −4.0% | −0.4% | 58% | 48 | Weak evidence | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 24 | 67% | +4.1% | −0.4% | 53% | 45 | Weak evidence | 13 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 24 | 63% | +3.5% | −0.4% | 61% | 44 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 21 | 43% | −1.6% | −0.4% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence | 27 Oct 2026 |
| Golden cross | 10 | 20% | −9.0% | −0.4% | 42% | 30 | No better than chance | 8 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 36 | 56% | +1.1% | −0.4% | 86% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 34 | 47% | −2.7% | −0.4% | 76% | 21 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 41 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.4% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 65 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 16 | 56% | +5.5% | −0.4% | 48% | 19 | No better than chance | 17 Jun 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 26 | 42% | −3.6% | −0.4% | 69% | 19 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Death cross | 10 | 20% | −1.9% | −0.4% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance | 27 Oct 2025 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 13 | 46% | −2.1% | −0.4% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 18 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.4% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 3 days | 45 | 62% | +4.4% | −0.4% | 29% | 54 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 63 | 60% | +2.8% | −0.4% | 43% | 51 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 35 | 57% | +3.1% | −0.4% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 56 | 54% | +0.6% | −0.4% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence | 22 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 21 | 67% | +5.0% | −0.4% | 46% | 46 | Weak evidence | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 16 | 63% | +3.9% | −0.4% | 65% | 41 | Weak evidence | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 108 | 53% | +2.4% | −0.4% | 36% | 25 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 52 | 54% | +1.8% | −0.4% | 69% | 24 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 105 | 53% | +1.3% | −0.4% | 67% | 23 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 101 | 53% | +0.9% | −0.4% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 108 | 51% | +0.5% | −0.4% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 14 | 64% | +8.4% | −0.4% | 29% | 22 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 150 | 47% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 161 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 41 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 1 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 29 | 52% | +0.4% | −0.4% | 94% | 16 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 30 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.4% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance | 17 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 12 | 58% | +1.0% | −0.4% | 93% | 9 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 9 | 78% | +5.9% | −0.4% | 18% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 8 | 88% | +15.1% | −0.4% | 0.5% | Too few cases | 5 Aug 2024 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 2 | 50% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 97% | Too few cases | 13 Apr 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 45% | −1.3% | −0.4% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 64% | +5.6% | −0.4% | 58% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 31% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 97% | 8 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $6.07 | open |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $6.23 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $7.23 | −32.4% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $6.82 | −10.9% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $6.82 | −10.9% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $7.10 | +1.7% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $7.16 | −3.8% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $7.16 | −3.8% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $6.47 | +5.3% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Volatility squeeze | $7.09 | +1.9% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $7.01 | −7.7% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.