After a 30% drop in 30 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 4,741 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence2 of 942 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance60 of 94coins
Scored cases4,741since 2017
The rule. Close at least 30% below the close 30 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chainlink | 49 | 59% | +6.1% | +0.1% | +6.0% | 12% | 83 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 XRP | 37 | 59% | +3.3% | −0.8% | +4.1% | 22% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Polymesh | 34 | 62% | +3.6% | −1.6% | +5.2% | 26% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 40 | 55% | +3.6% | −0.1% | +3.6% | 57% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 66 | 38% | −4.4% | −0.9% | −3.5% | 38% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 32 | 72% | +3.7% | +0.5% | +3.2% | 38% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 46 | 54% | +1.3% | −1.4% | +2.7% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 64 | 56% | +1.7% | −1.0% | +2.7% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 72 | 38% | −4.4% | −1.7% | −2.7% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 66 | 36% | −4.4% | −1.4% | −3.0% | 56% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 55 | 53% | +0.8% | −1.7% | +2.6% | 63% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 58 | 55% | +1.4% | −0.6% | +2.0% | 64% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 74 | 45% | −0.8% | −3.0% | +2.2% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 61 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.2% | +1.9% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 46 | 41% | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.7% | 75% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 36 | 44% | −2.2% | −0.4% | −1.9% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 55 | 53% | +1.1% | −0.2% | +1.3% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 44 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.0% | +1.1% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 38 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.4% | +2.4% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 69 | 41% | −2.5% | −0.5% | −2.0% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 61 | 51% | 0.0% | −1.3% | +1.4% | 81% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 58 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.8% | +0.8% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 56 | 54% | +0.6% | −0.4% | +1.0% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 35 | 51% | +0.3% | −2.7% | +3.0% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 31 | 58% | +0.9% | −1.5% | +2.4% | 62% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 39 | 46% | −0.6% | −1.9% | +1.3% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 57 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.7% | +0.7% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 35 | 51% | +0.2% | −1.7% | +1.9% | 79% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 66 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.6% | +0.3% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 68 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 45 | 42% | −4.0% | −3.4% | −0.6% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 41 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.4% | +0.3% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 22 | 68% | +2.9% | +0.5% | +2.4% | 55% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 32 | 41% | −2.5% | −2.2% | −0.3% | 98% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 65 | 46% | −3.1% | +0.1% | −3.2% | 48% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 31 | 42% | −6.6% | −0.5% | −6.1% | 32% | 26 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 56 | 52% | +2.4% | −1.3% | +3.7% | 44% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 67 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.6% | +2.6% | 59% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 48 | 35% | −0.7% | −2.2% | +1.6% | 63% | 25 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 52 | 52% | +1.2% | −1.3% | +2.5% | 65% | 25 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 55 | 44% | −3.2% | −0.6% | −2.6% | 70% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 49 | 41% | −3.0% | −1.2% | −1.8% | 75% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 10 | 20% | −2.5% | −0.3% | −2.2% | 70% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 44 | 43% | −3.2% | −1.1% | −2.1% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 45 | 56% | +1.3% | −0.3% | +1.7% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 54 | 54% | +0.9% | −0.5% | +1.4% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 39 | 46% | −2.0% | −0.1% | −1.9% | 76% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 58 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.5% | +1.5% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 56 | 50% | +0.2% | −1.7% | +1.9% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 74 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.6% | +1.5% | 71% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 64 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.6% | +1.4% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 45 | 56% | +1.3% | +0.3% | +1.0% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 45 | 42% | −1.8% | −1.0% | −0.8% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 18 | 56% | +3.3% | −1.3% | +4.6% | 36% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 102 | 44% | −2.5% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 83% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 52 | 46% | −2.2% | −1.3% | −0.9% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 67 | 54% | +1.0% | −0.4% | +1.4% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 63 | 46% | −0.6% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 65 | 49% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.7% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 51 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.9% | +0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 62 | 44% | −1.6% | −1.1% | −0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 66 | 48% | −0.5% | −0.1% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 59 | 46% | −1.8% | −1.2% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 101 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 67 | 49% | −0.4% | −0.7% | +0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 46 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | −0.4% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 40 | 48% | −1.1% | −1.9% | +0.8% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 42 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 61 | 43% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 81 | 49% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 68 | 47% | −1.1% | −1.8% | +0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 67 | 49% | −0.7% | −0.3% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 58 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.2% | +0.8% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 42 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 38 | 42% | −2.1% | −1.5% | −0.6% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 50 | 40% | −2.5% | −2.7% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 67 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 47 | 43% | −0.6% | −0.8% | +0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 51 | 47% | −1.9% | −1.7% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 72 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.7% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 37 | 43% | −1.7% | −2.5% | +0.9% | 95% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 45 | 42% | −2.0% | −1.7% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 77 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 31 | 45% | −0.5% | +0.6% | −1.1% | 84% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 33 | 39% | −2.7% | −1.6% | −1.1% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 35 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.0% | +0.2% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 32 | 47% | −0.5% | −1.5% | +1.0% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 34 | 38% | −1.1% | −0.9% | −0.3% | 98% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 34 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.2% | 0.0% | 100% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 21 | 43% | −2.8% | −0.2% | −2.6% | 62% | 17 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 31 | 55% | +0.7% | +0.7% | 0.0% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 29 | 45% | −0.8% | −0.3% | −0.5% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 30 | 37% | −2.1% | −2.0% | −0.1% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Request | 24 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.5% | −0.5% | 96% | 13 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.