After a 10% drop in 3 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 8,547 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence0 of 940 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance51 of 94coins
Scored cases8,547since 2017
The rule. Close at least 10% below the close 3 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dogecoin | 89 | 58% | +1.7% | −1.0% | +2.6% | 24% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 57 | 42% | −3.1% | −0.5% | −2.6% | 31% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 87 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.3% | −2.9% | 39% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 93 | 34% | −4.4% | −1.5% | −2.9% | 33% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 82 | 66% | +2.3% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 43% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 109 | 51% | +0.7% | −1.1% | +1.9% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 63 | 29% | −5.7% | −2.7% | −3.1% | 57% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 64 | 52% | +0.2% | −2.5% | +2.8% | 60% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 100 | 38% | −2.9% | −0.7% | −2.2% | 47% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 107 | 54% | +1.4% | −0.2% | +1.6% | 51% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 56 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.7% | +1.9% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 56 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.3% | +1.5% | 66% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 69 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.5% | +1.6% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 58 | 41% | −2.7% | −0.5% | −2.2% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 86 | 52% | +1.4% | −0.4% | +1.8% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 88 | 41% | −3.0% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 83 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.8% | +1.1% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 119 | 45% | −1.3% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 117 | 43% | −2.6% | −1.0% | −1.6% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 114 | 50% | −0.1% | −1.6% | +1.5% | 74% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 76 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.7% | +1.3% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 97 | 42% | −3.0% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 100 | 54% | +0.4% | −1.2% | +1.6% | 57% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 100 | 43% | −2.8% | −1.2% | −1.6% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 80 | 53% | +0.7% | −0.2% | +0.9% | 81% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 92 | 49% | −0.2% | −1.0% | +0.8% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 58 | 41% | −2.7% | −1.5% | −1.2% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 73 | 36% | −1.6% | −0.8% | −0.7% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 59 | 53% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +1.5% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 121 | 46% | −1.7% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 54 | 37% | −1.5% | −2.2% | +0.8% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 88 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.7% | +1.0% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 58 | 43% | −2.7% | −1.6% | −1.1% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 56 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.5% | −0.5% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 106 | 47% | −0.7% | −1.2% | +0.5% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 106 | 39% | −2.0% | −1.3% | −0.7% | 88% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 104 | 39% | −2.3% | −1.7% | −0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 132 | 41% | −2.1% | −1.3% | −0.8% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 63 | 46% | −1.2% | −1.9% | +0.7% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 92 | 53% | +0.2% | +0.3% | −0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 90 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 115 | 48% | −0.4% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 96% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 107 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.7% | +0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 56 | 50% | +0.5% | −2.0% | +2.5% | 60% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 101 | 43% | −3.1% | −0.9% | −2.2% | 56% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 48 | 52% | +1.4% | −0.2% | +1.6% | 62% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 116 | 51% | +0.4% | −0.8% | +1.3% | 69% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 101 | 53% | +0.9% | −0.4% | +1.4% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 97 | 37% | −4.7% | −3.0% | −1.8% | 69% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 99 | 42% | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.5% | 65% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 60 | 45% | −1.8% | −3.4% | +1.6% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 105 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.3% | +1.1% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 69 | 57% | +1.2% | +0.7% | +0.5% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 114 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.9% | +0.9% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 106 | 53% | +0.5% | −0.5% | +1.0% | 78% | 22 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 119 | 46% | −2.0% | −0.8% | −1.1% | 71% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 71 | 42% | −1.8% | −1.1% | −0.8% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 63 | 44% | −1.7% | −0.9% | −0.9% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 128 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.6% | +1.1% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 106 | 46% | −2.0% | −1.2% | −0.9% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 122 | 49% | 0.0% | −0.8% | +0.8% | 84% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 93 | 49% | −0.6% | −0.3% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 107 | 47% | −0.6% | +0.1% | −0.8% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 111 | 48% | −1.1% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 94 | 43% | −1.7% | −1.1% | −0.7% | 89% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 78 | 40% | −1.9% | −1.4% | −0.4% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 106 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.7% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 77 | 40% | −3.1% | −2.7% | −0.3% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 160 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 90% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 104 | 46% | −1.5% | −0.8% | −0.7% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 113 | 41% | −1.8% | −1.2% | −0.6% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 58 | 43% | −1.6% | −2.2% | +0.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 152 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.3% | −0.7% | 90% | 21 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 62 | 55% | +0.9% | +0.6% | +0.2% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 123 | 46% | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 61 | 48% | −1.1% | −1.9% | +0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 51 | 47% | −2.0% | −1.6% | −0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 73 | 51% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 116 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.1% | +0.5% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 125 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.8% | 92% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 104 | 42% | −2.4% | −1.8% | −0.6% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 84 | 36% | −2.2% | −1.7% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 67 | 52% | +0.5% | +0.5% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 88 | 42% | −1.2% | −1.0% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 82 | 48% | −1.6% | −1.4% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 124 | 49% | −0.7% | −0.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 89 | 48% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 121 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 97 | 41% | −1.6% | −1.4% | −0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 111 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.3% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 129 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.6% | +0.2% | 97% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 100 | 44% | −1.8% | −1.7% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 67 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.4% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 15 | 60% | +1.6% | −0.3% | +1.9% | 69% | 15 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.