RSI drops below 30: does it work in crypto?
An RSI reading under 30 is the most widely quoted "oversold" signal in technical analysis. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,148 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence4 of 924 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance42 of 92coins
Scored cases2,148since 2017
The rule. 14-day RSI closes below 30 after being at or above it the day before.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stellar | 30 | 70% | +4.7% | −1.1% | +5.8% | 11% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Conflux | 26 | 73% | +6.9% | −1.6% | +8.4% | 11% | 82 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Radworks | 20 | 70% | +6.0% | −0.9% | +6.9% | 16% | 69 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Quant | 17 | 59% | +5.5% | −1.3% | +6.9% | 18% | 63 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Ethereum Classic | 37 | 62% | +2.0% | −1.0% | +3.0% | 45% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 32 | 69% | +2.4% | −1.0% | +3.4% | 41% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 33 | 58% | +2.6% | −1.3% | +3.9% | 50% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 26 | 69% | +5.1% | −0.1% | +5.2% | 33% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 16 | 56% | +5.7% | +0.6% | +5.0% | 29% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 36 | 56% | +1.0% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 32 | 63% | +2.1% | −0.2% | +2.3% | 63% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 29 | 59% | +2.3% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 64% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 26 | 54% | +3.6% | −0.8% | +4.4% | 55% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 29 | 59% | +2.2% | −0.8% | +3.1% | 64% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 34 | 59% | +1.1% | −0.6% | +1.7% | 81% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 24 | 63% | +3.9% | −0.6% | +4.5% | 55% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 29 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.8% | +1.7% | 77% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 23 | 57% | +2.7% | +0.7% | +2.0% | 59% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 24 | 63% | +3.5% | −0.4% | +3.9% | 61% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 18 | 61% | +4.4% | −1.4% | +5.8% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 13 | 77% | +5.1% | −2.7% | +7.8% | 52% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 20 | 30% | −5.8% | −0.9% | −4.9% | 56% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 28 | 36% | −3.4% | −0.7% | −2.8% | 72% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 25 | 60% | +2.0% | −1.8% | +3.7% | 61% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 17 | 71% | +9.1% | −1.5% | +10.6% | 15% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 28 | 54% | +0.7% | −1.2% | +1.9% | 80% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 21 | 57% | +2.9% | −1.2% | +4.1% | 63% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 20 | 55% | +2.2% | −2.2% | +4.4% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 14 | 64% | +3.6% | −2.0% | +5.6% | 55% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 27 | 56% | +0.9% | −1.2% | +2.1% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 18 | 67% | +4.1% | −1.3% | +5.4% | 58% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 18 | 72% | +3.8% | −0.4% | +4.2% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 17 | 65% | +2.7% | −0.5% | +3.2% | 58% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 28 | 39% | −2.4% | −0.7% | −1.6% | 85% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 33 | 48% | −1.3% | −1.7% | +0.4% | 97% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 25 | 40% | −3.4% | −1.3% | −2.1% | 82% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 19 | 58% | +1.9% | −1.6% | +3.5% | 65% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 13 | 62% | +4.0% | −1.2% | +5.2% | 68% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 19 | 68% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +1.5% | 74% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 24 | 54% | +0.5% | −1.5% | +2.0% | 82% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 22 | 64% | +2.9% | −0.3% | +3.2% | 75% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 18 | 61% | +2.3% | −0.2% | +2.5% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 15 | 67% | +4.8% | −0.1% | +4.9% | 70% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 23 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.7% | +1.7% | 87% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 26 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.4% | +0.6% | 93% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 20 | 50% | +0.8% | −1.3% | +2.2% | 87% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 20 | 60% | +1.0% | −0.7% | +1.6% | 91% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 18 | 50% | +1.2% | −1.2% | +2.3% | 87% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 12 | 58% | +2.6% | −0.1% | +2.6% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 18 | 44% | −2.9% | −1.7% | −1.2% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 11 | 36% | −0.4% | −1.9% | +1.5% | 93% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 13 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.4% | +0.5% | 98% | 32 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 34 | 53% | +2.3% | −1.3% | +3.6% | 64% | 23 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 39 | 51% | +0.8% | −0.8% | +1.6% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 29 | 55% | +1.4% | −3.0% | +4.3% | 53% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 29 | 55% | +2.2% | −1.1% | +3.3% | 61% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 38 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.8% | +0.4% | 96% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 40 | 43% | −2.2% | −2.2% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 10 | 50% | +0.4% | −1.9% | +2.3% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 30 | 53% | +0.5% | −1.7% | +2.2% | 83% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 28 | 43% | −3.7% | −1.2% | −2.4% | 82% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 23 | 65% | +2.0% | −1.1% | +3.1% | 70% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 10 | 50% | −1.7% | −0.3% | −1.5% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 23 | 65% | +1.7% | −1.0% | +2.7% | 77% | 17 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 20 | 45% | −3.4% | −0.3% | −3.1% | 65% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 32 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.6% | +0.3% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 27 | 48% | −0.6% | +0.3% | −0.9% | 92% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 27 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 31 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.2% | −0.2% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 24 | 71% | +1.4% | +0.5% | +0.9% | 91% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 22 | 55% | +0.7% | −1.5% | +2.2% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 27 | 52% | +0.4% | −0.6% | +1.0% | 92% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 21 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.5% | +1.6% | 84% | 15 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 28 | 46% | −0.4% | −0.8% | +0.4% | 97% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 27 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.6% | −0.1% | 100% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 25 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.9% | 0.0% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 22 | 45% | −0.9% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 23 | 57% | +0.4% | −0.5% | +0.8% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 19 | 37% | −2.5% | −0.5% | −1.9% | 89% | 13 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 17 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.7% | +2.7% | 83% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 25 | 48% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 22 | 36% | −2.9% | −1.4% | −1.5% | 92% | 13 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 19 | 42% | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.5% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 22 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 96% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 22 | 45% | −0.8% | −0.4% | −0.4% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 20 | 55% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 16 | 38% | −3.3% | −1.7% | −1.6% | 91% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 11 | 45% | −2.2% | −0.2% | −2.0% | 82% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 17 | 53% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +0.7% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 19 | 42% | −1.6% | −1.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 18 | 33% | −3.5% | −3.4% | −0.1% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 12 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.5% | 0.0% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 7 | 57% | +4.5% | −2.7% | +7.2% | 24% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 9 | 67% | +1.8% | −2.5% | +4.4% | 38% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.