After a 15% drop in 7 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 5,903 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence3 of 943 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance34 of 94coins
Scored cases5,903since 2017
The rule. Close at least 15% below the close 7 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XRP | 58 | 66% | +3.2% | −0.8% | +3.9% | 7.2% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 JUST | 40 | 63% | +4.1% | +0.6% | +3.5% | 25% | 56 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Prom | 35 | 66% | +4.0% | −0.2% | +4.2% | 24% | 55 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 36 | 61% | +3.4% | +0.5% | +2.9% | 29% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 59 | 63% | +2.0% | −1.1% | +3.2% | 28% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 54 | 57% | +3.1% | −0.3% | +3.4% | 32% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 67 | 58% | +2.6% | −0.2% | +2.8% | 33% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 63 | 62% | +3.7% | −0.1% | +3.8% | 42% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 44 | 55% | +1.5% | −2.2% | +3.8% | 45% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 77 | 56% | +1.8% | −0.8% | +2.7% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 71 | 59% | +3.2% | +0.1% | +3.0% | 45% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 63 | 60% | +2.8% | −0.4% | +3.3% | 43% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 38 | 55% | +1.2% | −1.6% | +2.8% | 50% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 44 | 52% | +0.7% | −2.5% | +3.3% | 60% | 51 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 57 | 54% | +1.5% | −1.7% | +3.3% | 46% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 89 | 57% | +3.2% | −0.4% | +3.7% | 37% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 42 | 62% | +1.5% | −0.5% | +2.0% | 56% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 53 | 68% | +2.3% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 57% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 66 | 62% | +2.0% | −0.1% | +2.2% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 78 | 55% | +1.3% | −1.2% | +2.5% | 54% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 46 | 57% | +1.0% | −0.9% | +1.9% | 66% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 64 | 56% | +1.2% | −0.9% | +2.1% | 64% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 38 | 53% | +1.0% | −1.5% | +2.5% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 65 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.3% | +2.1% | 66% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 75 | 51% | +1.1% | −0.5% | +1.6% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 54 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.2% | +2.2% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 82 | 56% | +1.0% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 54% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 68 | 44% | −3.6% | −1.3% | −2.3% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 88 | 57% | +0.8% | −0.8% | +1.6% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 58 | 57% | +0.2% | −1.0% | +1.2% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 62 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.0% | +1.4% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 32 | 59% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.5% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 58 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.8% | +1.3% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 72 | 54% | +0.9% | −0.9% | +1.8% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 83 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.7% | +1.5% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 70 | 33% | −3.3% | −1.4% | −2.0% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 41 | 44% | −1.4% | −0.4% | −1.1% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 60 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.3% | +1.0% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 56 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 70 | 43% | −1.9% | −1.1% | −0.9% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 70 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.2% | +1.1% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 80 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.8% | +1.1% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 35 | 69% | +2.8% | −0.3% | +3.0% | 73% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 83 | 51% | +0.2% | −1.0% | +1.2% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 71 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.6% | +0.9% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 67 | 46% | −0.2% | −1.2% | +1.0% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 77 | 45% | −0.9% | −1.8% | +0.9% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 84 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.3% | +1.2% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 68 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.7% | +1.2% | 88% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 64 | 48% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 91% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 68 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 46 | 46% | −0.5% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 54 | 44% | −1.8% | −1.4% | −0.4% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 48 | 40% | −2.2% | −2.7% | +0.5% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 71 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.7% | +0.4% | 96% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 37 | 35% | −1.4% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 14 | 71% | +3.2% | −0.3% | +3.4% | 39% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 79 | 47% | −0.3% | −1.2% | +0.8% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 40 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.6% | +0.4% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 57 | 40% | −2.9% | −2.7% | −0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 40 | 55% | +2.8% | +0.7% | +2.2% | 37% | 28 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 43 | 56% | +1.4% | −1.7% | +3.1% | 55% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 81 | 56% | +3.8% | +0.1% | +3.6% | 29% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 78 | 56% | +2.0% | −0.6% | +2.6% | 43% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 43 | 44% | −1.3% | −3.4% | +2.1% | 75% | 24 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 57 | 54% | +1.3% | −0.4% | +1.7% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 71 | 52% | +0.5% | −1.7% | +2.3% | 64% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 48 | 38% | −3.3% | −1.4% | −1.9% | 79% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 80 | 59% | +2.0% | −0.1% | +2.1% | 69% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 71 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.6% | +1.2% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 85 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.6% | +1.5% | 77% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 44 | 43% | −2.2% | −1.5% | −0.7% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 42 | 40% | −1.4% | −0.5% | −0.9% | 94% | 22 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 52 | 50% | −0.8% | −1.7% | +0.9% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 80 | 44% | −2.1% | −3.0% | +0.9% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 84 | 52% | +0.4% | −0.8% | +1.2% | 75% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 73 | 45% | −0.5% | −1.5% | +1.0% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 91 | 53% | +0.3% | −0.6% | +0.9% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 76 | 51% | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 49 | 49% | −0.9% | −1.5% | +0.6% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 82 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.5% | +0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 82 | 45% | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 44 | 48% | −1.5% | −1.9% | +0.5% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 35 | 40% | −3.9% | −2.0% | −1.9% | 80% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 54 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.1% | +0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 60 | 52% | +0.1% | +0.3% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 67 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.7% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 108 | 44% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 79 | 47% | −1.1% | −1.2% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 109 | 43% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 75 | 36% | −1.6% | −1.7% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 95 | 45% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 94 | 39% | −1.4% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 42 | 33% | −1.7% | −1.9% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.