Polymesh volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,489 daily moves since 17 Oct 2022. On a typical day POLYX moves 2.5% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 8.1%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −96%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2023 | −38.6% | $0.2478 | −15.3% | −20.4% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −27.4% | $0.08290 | +1.4% | −4.8% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −25.2% | $0.1086 | +27.6% | +52.8% |
| 21 Apr 2023 | −23.7% | $0.2230 | −16.5% | −31.7% |
| 18 Oct 2022 | −22.8% | $0.2567 | −28.7% | −48.1% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | −17.9% | $0.3266 | +4.3% | −15.8% |
| 19 Oct 2022 | −17.8% | $0.2109 | −12.8% | −37.6% |
| 25 Oct 2023 | −17.5% | $0.2120 | +10.8% | −5.8% |
| 21 Oct 2023 | −17.1% | $0.1608 | +70.1% | +28.6% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | −16.9% | $0.1034 | +3.8% | +23.1% |
After these 10 falls, POLYX was higher a week later in 6 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 3 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 24 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr 2023 | +81.4% | $0.2921 | −34.6% | −45.6% |
| 20 Mar 2024 | +69.7% | $0.3411 | +75.2% | +32.2% |
| 25 Mar 2024 | +51.2% | $0.5965 | −1.9% | −29.3% |
| 30 Oct 2023 | +38.5% | $0.4038 | −46.3% | −50.2% |
| 24 Oct 2023 | +38.5% | $0.2569 | −3.5% | −23.6% |
| 20 Oct 2023 | +29.7% | $0.1939 | +23.1% | +7.9% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | +27.8% | $0.05380 | −10.8% | −0.4% |
| 26 Oct 2023 | +23.3% | $0.2613 | −16.2% | −23.1% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | +21.5% | $0.3107 | +9.4% | +9.7% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +21.3% | $0.1855 | +117.7% | +4.6% |
After these 10 gains, POLYX was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 4 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 24 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Polymesh and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days POLYX has moved loosely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.58, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, POLYX moved about 1.02% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.70 | 1.09% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.58 | 1.02% |
| All shared history | 1,489 | 0.50 | 1.24% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,489 days both pairs traded. What POLYX did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.