Polymesh signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily POLYX candle since 17 Oct 2022 (1,490 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 5 signals did no better than picking days at random.
POLYX price · last close$0.0260514 Nov 2026 close: $0.02605 (7d −15.8%)
RSI (14)25.1under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.17×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.7%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−97%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five red days in a row | 17 | 65% | +6.4% | −1.6% | 25% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 38 | 34% | −3.0% | −1.6% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 40 | 45% | −0.5% | −1.6% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 26 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 29 | 31% | −4.1% | −1.6% | 71% | 45 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 23 | 65% | +2.3% | −1.6% | 56% | 45 | Weak evidence | 7 Jun 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 24 | 58% | +1.1% | −1.6% | 71% | 43 | Weak evidence | 18 Mar 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 19 | 58% | +1.9% | −1.6% | 65% | 42 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 19 | 53% | +1.1% | −1.6% | 75% | 40 | Weak evidence | 23 Jul 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 14 | 21% | −5.0% | −1.6% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence | 27 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 20 | 45% | −1.0% | −1.6% | 97% | 36 | Weak evidence | 25 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 13 | 54% | +0.3% | −1.6% | 89% | 35 | Weak evidence | 18 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 38 | 58% | +0.9% | −1.6% | 64% | 24 | No better than chance | 22 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 10 | 50% | −5.7% | −1.6% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance | 18 Mar 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 21 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.6% | 88% | 14 | No better than chance | 15 Jun 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 24 | 46% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 98% | 13 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 17 | 41% | −2.3% | −1.6% | 97% | 10 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 2 | 0% | −30.7% | −1.6% | 2.0% | Too few cases | 4 Dec 2024 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 33% | −7.6% | −1.6% | 39% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2025 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 8 | 63% | +9.4% | −1.6% | 1.8% | Too few cases | 3 Dec 2024 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% drop in 30 days | 34 | 62% | +3.6% | −1.6% | 26% | 53 | Weak evidence | 26 Jun 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 43 | 53% | +2.2% | −1.6% | 37% | 53 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 58 | 43% | −2.7% | −1.6% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 40 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.6% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 25 | 52% | +1.2% | −1.6% | 69% | 43 | Weak evidence | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 20 | 25% | −4.9% | −1.6% | 65% | 42 | Weak evidence | 22 Jul 2025 |
| 15% rise in a day | 11 | 45% | −5.5% | −1.6% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence | 4 Apr 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 12 | 58% | +1.3% | −1.6% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 5% rise in a day | 79 | 48% | −0.1% | −1.6% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance | 24 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 50 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.6% | 76% | 23 | No better than chance | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 95 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.6% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 54 | 43% | −0.7% | −1.6% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 26 | 42% | −3.9% | −1.6% | 74% | 18 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 14 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.6% | 98% | 8 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 11 | 45% | −2.6% | −1.6% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance | 17 Mar 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 9 | 67% | +1.4% | −1.6% | 43% | Too few cases | 18 Mar 2026 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 5 | 40% | −4.1% | −1.6% | 63% | Too few cases | 10 Oct 2025 | |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 8 | 88% | +7.1% | −1.6% | 5.4% | Too few cases | 3 Nov 2025 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 4 | 100% | +7.1% | −1.6% | 14% | Too few cases | 11 Jul 2024 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 5 | 40% | −14.9% | −1.6% | 2.7% | Too few cases | 31 Mar 2024 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 7 | 29% | −3.5% | −1.6% | 65% | Too few cases | 3 Dec 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 34 | 59% | +4.1% | −1.6% | 19% | 65 | Some evidence · leans up | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 24 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.6% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 1 | 100% | +7.1% | −1.6% | – | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 4 | 75% | +8.4% | −1.6% | 9.6% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.02895 | open |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.03310 | −4.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.03390 | −6.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.03390 | −6.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.03350 | −3.0% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.03360 | −4.9% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.03390 | −1.2% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.03390 | −1.2% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.