Optimism volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,627 daily moves since 1 Jun 2022. On a typical day OP moves 3.1% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 8.6%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −98%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jun 2022 | −34.1% | $0.7300 | −18.8% | −22.5% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | −29.6% | $0.4976 | −15.7% | −13.9% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | −26.2% | $0.9670 | −3.1% | +11.8% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −19.2% | $0.7810 | +14.9% | +36.9% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | −18.0% | $1.09 | +3.8% | +10.0% |
| 18 Sep 2022 | −17.8% | $0.9300 | −2.7% | −20.4% |
| 16 Jun 2022 | −17.5% | $0.4890 | +6.7% | +6.7% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | −16.9% | $0.1820 | +0.4% | −36.0% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | −16.7% | $2.45 | −8.8% | +3.1% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | −16.4% | $1.12 | −3.4% | −15.7% |
After these 10 falls, OP was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 5 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 37 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2022 | +40.6% | $0.8170 | −2.7% | +61.7% |
| 28 Jul 2022 | +37.6% | $1.45 | +32.5% | −29.4% |
| 22 Dec 2023 | +37.3% | $3.46 | +13.0% | −9.9% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | +33.2% | $1.04 | −14.5% | +0.9% |
| 27 Jul 2022 | +27.2% | $1.05 | +89.3% | −3.1% |
| 29 Jul 2022 | +26.9% | $1.84 | +5.7% | −42.7% |
| 7 Dec 2023 | +26.8% | $2.17 | +4.2% | +48.5% |
| 21 Nov 2024 | +26.3% | $2.08 | +13.3% | −16.2% |
| 1 Feb 2023 | +25.8% | $2.73 | +1.5% | −6.7% |
| 2 Jun 2022 | +25.5% | $1.55 | −46.7% | −66.0% |
After these 10 gains, OP was higher a week later in 7 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 3 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 45 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Optimism and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days OP has moved loosely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.59, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, OP moved about 1.26% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.58 | 1.58% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.59 | 1.26% |
| All shared history | 1,627 | 0.59 | 1.43% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,627 days both pairs traded. What OP did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.