Optimism seasonality: every month and weekday
Going by median return since 2022, Optimism's best month has been July (+17.4%, higher in 3 of 5 years) and its worst June (−18.7%, higher in 0 of 5). Across all 53 full months, it finished higher 30% of the time.
A handful of years per month is a small sample. The “by luck” column says how easily a record like that would turn up if the month were no different from any other.
By month
| Month | Years | Higher | Median | Average | Best | Worst | By luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4 | 1 of 4 | −15.5% | +20.8% | +136% (2023) | −22% (2024) | 100% |
| February | 4 | 2 of 4 | +0.3% | −4.9% | +28% (2024) | −48% (2026) | 59% |
| March | 4 | 0 of 4 | −12.5% | −14.3% | 0% (2024) | −32% (2025) | 32% |
| April | 4 | 1 of 4 | −2.9% | −7.1% | +9% (2026) | −31% (2024) | 100% |
| May | 4 | 0 of 4 | −7.0% | −12.9% | −1% (2026) | −36% (2023) | 32% |
| June | 5 | 0 of 5 | −18.7% | −24.7% | −3% (2023) | −62% (2022) | 20% |
| July | 5 | 3 of 5 | +17.4% | +40.7% | +189% (2022) | −12% (2024) | 33% |
| August | 5 | 2 of 5 | −10.4% | −7.9% | +10% (2026) | −29% (2022) | 100% |
| September | 5 | 2 of 5 | −3.0% | +7.2% | +38% (2026) | −19% (2022) | 100% |
| October | 5 | 2 of 5 | −7.8% | −8.7% | +14% (2022) | −41% (2025) | 100% |
| November | 4 | 2 of 4 | +8.3% | +12.1% | +52% (2024) | −20% (2025) | 59% |
| December | 4 | 1 of 4 | −12.2% | +17.2% | +122% (2023) | −28% (2024) | 100% |
By weekday
| Day (UTC) | Days | Higher | Median daily move | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 232 | 50% | −0.04% | +0.06% |
| Tuesday | 232 | 46% | −0.45% | −0.37% |
| Wednesday | 232 | 47% | −0.17% | +0.19% |
| Thursday | 233 | 45% | −0.78% | +0.01% |
| Friday | 233 | 52% | +0.21% | +0.89% |
| Saturday | 233 | 48% | −0.16% | −0.26% |
| Sunday | 232 | 42% | −0.48% | −0.39% |
A month's return runs from the open of its first daily candle to the close of its last (UTC). Only full months are counted. Daily moves are close to close.