Optimism signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily OP candle since 1 Jun 2022 (1,628 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 11 signals did no better than picking days at random.
OP price · last close$0.0799014 Nov 2026 close: $0.07990 (7d −21.9%)
RSI (14)28.7under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.17×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.5%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−98%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five red days in a row | 21 | 62% | +5.8% | −1.4% | 33% | 48 | Weak evidence | 25 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 37 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.4% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 18 | 61% | +4.4% | −1.4% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence | 27 Mar 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 16 | 38% | −6.1% | −1.4% | 64% | 41 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 21 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.4% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence | 2 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 45 | 58% | +2.2% | −1.4% | 52% | 26 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 10 | 40% | −6.8% | −1.4% | 68% | 24 | No better than chance | 13 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 42 | 33% | −3.3% | −1.4% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 40 | 43% | −1.5% | −1.4% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 30 | 47% | −1.1% | −1.4% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance | 30 Aug 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 11 | 64% | +3.8% | −1.4% | 70% | 15 | No better than chance | 13 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 23 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.4% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance | 1 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 21 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.4% | 96% | 12 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 18 | 44% | −2.9% | −1.4% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 14 | 50% | +0.8% | −1.4% | 88% | 11 | No better than chance | 19 Feb 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 15 | 47% | −2.1% | −1.4% | 97% | 9 | No better than chance | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 8 | 63% | +4.8% | −1.4% | 23% | Too few cases | 19 Feb 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 5 | 60% | +7.7% | −1.4% | 18% | Too few cases | 5 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 80% | +1.9% | −1.4% | 61% | Too few cases | 18 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% drop in 30 days | 46 | 54% | +1.3% | −1.4% | 68% | 50 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 85 | 40% | −3.8% | −1.4% | 58% | 49 | Weak evidence | 1 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 40 | 38% | −3.4% | −1.4% | 80% | 49 | Weak evidence | 13 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 82 | 41% | −3.3% | −1.4% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 30 | 40% | −6.1% | −1.4% | 47% | 48 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 54 | 44% | −1.8% | −1.4% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 12 | 33% | −3.3% | −1.4% | 92% | 34 | No better than chance | 19 Feb 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 121 | 40% | −3.7% | −1.4% | 51% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 113 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.4% | 52% | 24 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 83 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.4% | 61% | 24 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 41 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.4% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 10 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 82 | 48% | −1.6% | −1.4% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 23 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 16 | 56% | +4.5% | −1.4% | 53% | 18 | No better than chance | 6 Jun 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 18 | 56% | +2.4% | −1.4% | 71% | 16 | No better than chance | 7 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 26 | 31% | −3.0% | −1.4% | 90% | 16 | No better than chance | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 25 | 44% | −2.7% | −1.4% | 93% | 15 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 20 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.4% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 7 | 57% | +0.4% | −1.4% | 76% | Too few cases | 20 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 60% | +4.9% | −1.4% | 34% | Too few cases | 26 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 7 | 57% | +1.6% | −1.4% | 58% | Too few cases | 27 Nov 2024 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 8 | 50% | −2.9% | −1.4% | 77% | Too few cases | 4 Jan 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 40 | 53% | +1.2% | −1.4% | 71% | 50 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 30 | 33% | −3.5% | −1.4% | 82% | 44 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 3 | 67% | +0.4% | −1.4% | 82% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 6 | 33% | −8.2% | −1.4% | 25% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.1006 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1023 | −21.9% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.1205 | −12.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1014 | −0.1% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1111 | +1.7% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1299 | −13.8% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.