Nexo volatility and risk: how violent it has been
1,660 daily moves since 29 Apr 2022. On a typical day NEXO moves 1.4% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 4.5%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −78%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2022 | −19.7% | $0.7240 | −5.4% | −7.5% |
| 11 May 2022 | −19.1% | $1.41 | −7.8% | −16.6% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | −18.4% | $0.7780 | −12.5% | −22.1% |
| 11 Nov 2022 | −16.6% | $0.6990 | 0.0% | −4.9% |
| 16 Jun 2022 | −15.4% | $0.6670 | +3.3% | −11.2% |
| 6 Sep 2022 | −13.1% | $0.9070 | +0.7% | −0.8% |
| 12 May 2022 | −12.4% | $1.23 | +10.9% | −11.6% |
| 12 Jun 2022 | −12.4% | $0.9530 | −28.0% | −39.8% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | −12.0% | $0.6690 | +21.5% | +30.0% |
| 26 Jun 2022 | −10.4% | $0.6540 | −10.9% | −0.8% |
After these 10 falls, NEXO was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 1 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2022 | +15.7% | $0.8380 | −16.1% | −20.6% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | +13.9% | $0.7620 | +11.4% | +14.0% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | +13.5% | $1.11 | −6.0% | −16.3% |
| 19 Jul 2022 | +13.1% | $0.7430 | −12.7% | +24.1% |
| 20 Mar 2024 | +12.7% | $1.35 | −2.4% | −10.2% |
| 19 Jun 2022 | +12.1% | $0.6860 | −4.7% | +8.3% |
| 20 May 2024 | +10.7% | $1.44 | +0.4% | −10.5% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | +10.5% | $1.25 | −14.4% | −13.3% |
| 19 Jan 2023 | +10.2% | $0.7960 | +5.4% | −5.5% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +10.2% | $0.8630 | −4.1% | −3.8% |
After these 10 gains, NEXO was higher a week later in 3 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 3 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 11 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Nexo and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days NEXO has moved very closely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.81, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, NEXO moved about 0.82% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.78 | 0.79% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.81 | 0.82% |
| All shared history | 1,660 | 0.76 | 0.90% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 1,660 days both pairs traded. What NEXO did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.