Nexo signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily NEXO candle since 29 Apr 2022 (1,661 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
NEXO price · last close$0.659014 Nov 2026 close: $0.6590 (7d −10.2%)
RSI (14)22.5under 30
Volume vs 30-day average2.18×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume50.5%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−87%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 11 | 82% | +8.3% | −0.3% | 4.6% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up | 30 Nov 2024 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 16 | 81% | +4.8% | −0.3% | 14% | 69 | Some evidence · leans up | 19 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 39 | 36% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 11 | 27% | −4.7% | −0.3% | 35% | 45 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 13 | 69% | +2.1% | −0.3% | 62% | 41 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 19 | 68% | +1.2% | −0.3% | 74% | 41 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 14 | 79% | +2.0% | −0.3% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence | 13 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 16 | 31% | −0.6% | −0.3% | 97% | 34 | No better than chance | 7 May 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 15 | 60% | +3.1% | −0.3% | 39% | 21 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 32 | 53% | +0.6% | −0.3% | 80% | 20 | No better than chance | 8 May 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 34 | 53% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 92% | 19 | No better than chance | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 29 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | 92% | 17 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 14 | 64% | +1.5% | −0.3% | 71% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Jan 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 5 | 40% | −5.4% | −0.3% | 9.6% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 20% drop in a week | 6 | 50% | +0.8% | −0.3% | 65% | Too few cases | 4 Feb 2026 | |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 6 | 67% | +1.1% | −0.3% | 56% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Golden cross | 4 | 25% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 89% | Too few cases | 2 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 3 | 0% | −10.3% | −0.3% | 2.5% | Too few cases | 25 Oct 2025 | |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 9 | 67% | +1.6% | −0.3% | 36% | Too few cases | 2 Jun 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% rise in a day | 25 | 56% | +2.5% | −0.3% | 33% | 49 | Weak evidence | 19 Aug 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 22 | 59% | +2.9% | −0.3% | 27% | 49 | Weak evidence | 20 Aug 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 14 | 71% | +3.2% | −0.3% | 39% | 46 | Weak evidence | 3 Feb 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 42 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.3% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 10 | 20% | −2.5% | −0.3% | 70% | 24 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 39 | 44% | −0.8% | −0.3% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 15 | 60% | +1.6% | −0.3% | 69% | 15 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 20 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.3% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 2 | 0% | −8.9% | −0.3% | 9.0% | Too few cases | 9 Nov 2022 | |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 3 | 33% | −5.4% | −0.3% | 19% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 2 | 0% | −16.7% | −0.3% | 1.0% | Too few cases | 9 Nov 2022 | |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 2 | 0% | −6.2% | −0.3% | 20% | Too few cases | 11 Nov 2022 | |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 6 | 17% | −2.5% | −0.3% | 39% | Too few cases | 11 Jul 2022 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 3 | 33% | −3.1% | −0.3% | 44% | Too few cases | 5 Jul 2022 | |
| 15% rise in a day | 1 | 0% | −16.1% | −0.3% | – | Too few cases | 10 Nov 2022 | |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 3 | 33% | −4.1% | −0.3% | 31% | Too few cases | 21 Aug 2026 | |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 8 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 93% | Too few cases | 21 Aug 2026 | |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 1 | 0% | −16.3% | −0.3% | – | Too few cases | 13 Aug 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 0 | – | – | −0.3% | – | Too few cases | – | |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 5 | 100% | +3.6% | −0.3% | 19% | Too few cases | 30 Nov 2024 | |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 0 | – | – | −0.3% | – | Too few cases | – |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 42 | 48% | −0.5% | −0.3% | 97% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 32 | 41% | −0.6% | −0.3% | 95% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 4 | 50% | +2.8% | −0.3% | 32% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 6 | 50% | −1.8% | −0.3% | 52% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.7220 | open |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.7440 | −4.6% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.7700 | −4.7% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.7670 | −3.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a red day | $0.7670 | −3.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.8080 | −4.7% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.8040 | +0.7% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.