What happens to Nexo after a 10% daily jump?

Since 2022, Nexo has shown a 10% daily jump 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 27% of the time, with a median move of −4.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for NEXO is −0.3%.

Weak evidence45

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 35% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202211last on 21 Aug 2026

Higher after 7 days27%ordinary: 48%

Median 7-day move−4.7%ordinary: −0.3%

Could be luck35%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−16% / +11%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary NEXO drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	11	18%	−2.9%	−5.6% to −0.4%	0.0%	−2.9%	1.1%	86
3 days	11	18%	−5.5%	−6.5% to −2.0%	0.0%	−5.5%	1.6%	86
7 days	11	27%	−4.7%	−13.5% to −1.0%	−0.3%	−4.4%	35%	45
14 days	11	18%	−2.7%	−12.4% to −0.3%	−0.9%	−1.8%	87%	36
30 days	11	27%	−6.6%	−11.9% to +2.2%	−1.7%	−4.9%	72%	40

“Ordinary median” is the median move of NEXO over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 3.9%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−7.9%ordinary NEXO: −5.0%

1 case in 4 dipped past−15.9%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way36%ordinary: 20%

Typical best point+4.9%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−5.0%ordinary: −0.6%

Ahead after costs27%ordinary: 46%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was −8.4%, and in the later 5 it was −3.8%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
21 Aug 2026	$0.8630	−4.8%	−4.1%	−3.8%
6 Feb 2026	$0.7620	+3.5%	+11.4%	+14.0%
2 Mar 2025	$1.25	−6.5%	−14.4%	−13.3%
8 Aug 2024	$1.11	−3.2%	−6.0%	−16.3%
20 May 2024	$1.44	−0.1%	+0.4%	−10.5%
20 Mar 2024	$1.35	−0.8%	−2.4%	−10.2%
19 Jan 2023	$0.7960	+3.0%	+5.4%	−5.5%
10 Nov 2022	$0.8380	−16.6%	−16.1%	−20.6%
13 Aug 2022	$1.04	−2.9%	−16.3%	−6.6%
19 Jul 2022	$0.7430	−7.8%	−12.7%	+24.1%
19 Jun 2022	$0.6860	−0.7%	−4.7%	+8.3%

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

Daily close at least 10% above the previous close. A double-digit gain in one day pulls in momentum buyers and fear of missing out.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
JUST	35	29%	−8.7%	−9.4%	Strong evidence · leans down
Phala Network	47	32%	−8.1%	−6.6%	Strong evidence · leans down
Radworks	35	20%	−9.3%	−8.5%	Strong evidence · leans down
Dogecoin	62	29%	−5.6%	−4.6%	Strong evidence · leans down
Request	30	17%	−8.4%	−7.9%	Strong evidence · leans down
TRON	46	46%	−2.7%	−3.4%	Strong evidence · leans down
Shiba Inu	44	23%	−6.4%	−4.9%	Strong evidence · leans down
Conflux	69	29%	−7.4%	−5.8%	Strong evidence · leans down

10% jump in a day across all 94 coins

Other Nexo signals

Extreme sell pressureWeak evidence · 39 cases 7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 25 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 22 cases Bitcoin jumps 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 42 cases 5% drop in a dayNo better than chance · 39 cases

Full Nexo record

Want to know the moment this fires again?

New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.

See today's signals