Aave volatility and risk: how violent it has been
2,221 daily moves since 15 Oct 2020. On a typical day AAVE moves 3.0% in one direction or the other; on 1 day in 20 it has lost more than 8.2%, and its deepest fall from a record close was −92%.
Volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns multiplied by the square root of 365, the usual way to put it on a yearly scale. “1 in 20” and “1 in 100” are the 5th and 1st percentiles of all daily moves, read straight from the history with no model.
The 10 largest one-day falls, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2021 | −34.1% | $414.4 | +0.1% | −36.0% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | −22.0% | $212.6 | +6.9% | +22.0% |
| 11 May 2022 | −21.6% | $82.50 | −0.7% | +6.9% |
| 9 May 2022 | −21.1% | $99.30 | −15.5% | −2.8% |
| 21 May 2021 | −20.1% | $373.3 | −14.3% | −27.0% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | −19.5% | $58.10 | +0.5% | +5.9% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | −19.1% | $180.9 | −0.3% | −16.9% |
| 11 Nov 2020 | −18.7% | $54.44 | +38.0% | +37.1% |
| 21 Jan 2021 | −18.5% | $160.3 | +85.4% | +175.1% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | −18.4% | $101.0 | +13.9% | +7.7% |
After these 10 falls, AAVE was higher a week later in 6 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 6 of 10. 10 hand-picked extremes are an anecdote, not a test. The full count is on the 10% drop in a day study: 45 scored cases, verdict “no better than chance”.
The 10 largest one-day gains, and what followed
| Day | Move | Close | 7 days later | 30 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2022 | +32.8% | $222.7 | −0.8% | −25.4% |
| 24 May 2021 | +32.0% | $387.1 | −1.2% | −46.4% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +27.9% | $173.7 | −0.3% | +62.2% |
| 3 Feb 2021 | +26.9% | $384.5 | +36.2% | −4.5% |
| 6 Nov 2020 | +24.7% | $38.65 | +64.2% | +127.3% |
| 24 Jan 2021 | +24.0% | $264.4 | +13.3% | +37.8% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +23.7% | $122.7 | −0.4% | +12.1% |
| 30 May 2022 | +22.9% | $117.4 | −9.7% | −49.0% |
| 13 Nov 2020 | +22.5% | $63.46 | +18.1% | +32.3% |
| 4 Jan 2021 | +21.9% | $114.3 | −0.1% | +236.5% |
After these 10 gains, AAVE was higher a week later in 4 of 10 cases and higher 30 days later in 6 of 10. The full count is on the 10% jump in a day study: 60 scored cases, verdict “weak evidence”.
Moves are from one daily close to the next (00:00 UTC), Binance spot. “Open” means that many days have not passed yet.
Aave and Bitcoin
Over the last 365 days AAVE has moved closely with Bitcoin: the correlation of their daily moves is 0.68, where 1 means in step and 0 means unrelated. For each 1% Bitcoin moved in a day, AAVE moved about 1.29% on average.
| Period | Days | Correlation | Move per 1% of Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 90 days | 90 | 0.69 | 1.47% |
| Last 365 days | 365 | 0.68 | 1.29% |
| All shared history | 2,221 | 0.61 | 1.15% |
Daily close-to-close moves on the 2,221 days both pairs traded. What AAVE did in the week after a Bitcoin shock is tested separately: after Bitcoin drops 5% in a day.